Note that this only resolve things before the China conflict post

October 30th, 2031 the ground trembles. The sound of roughly 32,000 boots marching disrupts the peaceful landscape of southern Vietnam. The encircled IV Corps leadership had elected to blast, or at least attempt to, through the South Vietnamese lines and connect with their northern brothers through the central highlands. As tanks and artillery advance, little is done to resist them. The conscript militia that is the ARVN failed to confront the IV (Nine Dragons) Corps of the VPA marching in flat open terrain, lacking any basic heavy equipment. The IV Corps succeed in their objective to reach Da Lat by November, however, the monsoon season made the conditions on the highland unsuitable for heavy tracked vehicles, as flash floods and collapsed megaflora became a common sight. General Trong of the IV Corps had to make the tough decision of either to push forward, and endure unacceptably high casualties, or to entrench themselves at the scenic highland city, duly not renowned for its agricultural prowess, making starvation a very real possibility.

Da Lat is one of the more liberal Vietnamese city. However, with a large expat and domestic migrants, the encircled army entered the city with at least a mixed reception. The IV Corps, running low on food, and options, were forced to entrenched themselves in the urban highland city. Deprived of hopes as swarms and swarms of South Vietnamese guerilla fighters keep on enduring on their attacks inside the city, as it seemed like for each guerilla they kill 3 more comes to avenge the death. Unknown to them however up to a million fighters are tied down trying to eliminate the IV Corps pocket as well as the Eastern Coastal Pocket, which made sustaining these two outposts a top priority of the Northern government. With absolute air superiority, the IV Corps is somewhat resupplied through the air, although heavy fighting had rendered the Da Lat Airport mostly unusable, as such supply drops are their only means of delivery, which has the unintended effect of being wildly inaccurate, often times dropping much-needed supplies of food, ammunition or fire support equipment on South Vietnamese positions. Keeping in mind, however, that the South Vietnamese positions on the highlands are just as unattainable, with constant air and artillery strikes coupled with bad weather and their lack of real heavy weapons making it even harder to them to strike a decisive blow at the IV Corps. The ARVN are thus relegated to guerilla tactics and ambushes, and although they are inflicting heavy casualties on the IV Corps, with most of their divisions being only at best, half of their nominal fighting strength, they continue to tie up a significant portion of the ARVN that could have been used to entrenched on the main northern front line, as the inevitable Northern offensive is looking to shape up.

The Republic’s fortune turns, however, as Storm No.9 (Bão số 9) strikes Khanh Hoa and causing havoc deep into the provinces of Lam Dong and Dak Lak. With virtually no disaster relief, the Central Highlanders are virtually cut off from the rest of the world, and this includes the IV Corps, as telecommunications are either sabotaged or rendered ineffective due to the lack of sufficient infrastructure on the Highlands, further damaged by the tropical storm. Caught in the crossfire of the war they found themselves not wanting to be in, the Central Highlanders have shown signs of wanting to take up arms, with different Montagnards ethnicities all rallying against the predominantly Viet governments, both in Hanoi and Saigon. For the first time since the 1990s, the Front Uni de Lutte des Races Opprimées (FULRO) is once again, believed to be active, and are purposefully attacking infrastructure as well as sabotaging both Northern and Southern operations on the highlands. With the goal of an independent Central Highland for the Montagnards in the face of seeming incompetence from the northern and southern governments, they have turned themselves into more of a headache for both sides’ leadership as the complicated situation at the Highlands provide even more of an advantage for the rebelling FULRO.

To the North’s concern, they are slowing down their build-up process on the border, and as the II, III, V, VI and VII Corps are readying for a major offensive towards the south, as well as obstructing their progress towards ensuring the survival of the IV Corps, as supplies are also being confiscated by this “terrorist” group, a move that have made FULRO’s popularity risen even further amongst the Central Highlanders as the food supposedly going towards the soldiers wrecking their homelands are given to the locals who are still suffering from natural disaster without any outside help. With hope being lost and their situations becoming increasingly direr, the IV Corps surrenders to the Republic of Vietnam on the 15th of January, merely just 2 months before the planned Northern Offensive that would relieve them. A few hours after surrendering, however, few could sight where the main operational HQ of the IV Corps is, with many suspecting that the leadership has successfully escaped, and few knowing that FULRO have them locked up to serve as bargaining chips for their future plans.

The tropical storm, however, also affected the situation in the Eastern pocket. Sea State 4 temporarily halted the North’s operations in the area, which included setting up a naval blockade as well as ferrying around 20,000 marines into the area in order to advance North and connect with the main front line. However with the Southern forces in the area seemingly ignoring the Eastern pocket, their goals of reinforcing the citizen militia in the area with Northern marines succeed, and all the puzzles are in place for the North’s first offensive of the war.

March 12th (2032) to the CPV leadership in Hanoi, would mark the beginning of the end of President Kim and his pathetic experiment of rebellion in the “Republic of Vietnam”, as 800,000 North Vietnamese troops (of which 500,000 are trained reservists) advance south, named Operation Vo Nguyen Giap. The well trained and disciplined northern forces smashed through the lines of the barely trained and newly assembled ARVN, however, faced difficulty in utilizing their armored force on the hilly and forested terrain, with the problem further exacerbate by the lack of proper infrastructure in the area and the mass of human that the ARVN threw at the advancing Northerners. The front slowly dissolved into trench warfare and aside from the occasional skirmishes have remained fairly static, for now.

Meanwhile, as the Republic is distracted by the Northern offensive, a group of ethnic Khmer terrorists/separatists, coining themselves as the Khmer Krom Free State, became active in the Mekong river delta. With the goal of secession and unification with Cambodia, the group has been recruiting in the delta area as well as conducting terrorist attacks on Southern factories, as well as ethnic Viet in the area, however the problem has been largely ignored by the Saigon regime due to a much more obvious existential threat in the Vietnam People’s Army. Nevertheless, the KKFS has garnered much more international attention when around ten thousand KKFS members stirred up riots in the island of Phu Quoc, which escalated as armed fighters stormed government buildings and seized control of the island, declaring themselves to be the government of Koh Tral, and unilaterally declared themselves to be the 26th khaet of Cambodia. So far Phnom Penh has denied involvements with the group, however, they are pushing for “self-determination” for the Khmer Krom on the international stage.

Summary: Phu Quoc Island declared autonomy, unilaterally trying to be annexed by Cambodia. IV Corps surrenders. FULRO rises again and captured the IV Corps leadership for future bargaining. VPA advance grinds to a halt. RoV is navally blockaded. ARVN captured 1/4 of the 2018 VPA equipment stock (M: too lazy to write it all out)

Casualty:

Vietnam People's Army: 54,426

ARVN: 182,942

Civilian: 238,956 with a further 5 million displaced

Map