Following the nuclear exchange between China and Russia in the late 2020s, and the subsequent downfall of Putin's regime, Chechnya has been in a state of change. Ramzan Kadyrov had been one of Putin's most steadfast allies throughout the War in Ukraine and afterwards, and his fate was sealed once Putin fell; he was captured trying to flee the country, and given the "Gaddafi treatment" - publicly executed in Grozny. Public sentiment had been turning against Kadyrov throughout the 2020s, thanks to his support to the failed venture in Ukraine and the heavy cost that Chechens bore during that conflict - thus, many were pleased with his demise.

In his place, Akhmed Zakayev returned from his nearly thirty-year exile as President of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria - reestablishing the regime that had been dissolved in 2007, ignoring the so-called Umarov's attempt at dissolving Ichkeria to create the "Caucasus Emirate."

Zakayev's political base is fairly strong. He has credibility, from his experience fighting in the Chechen Wars and his membership in the Chinkhoy teip, but most prominently in the force that he brings to bear. With a basis in the volunteers that assisted Ukraine in the War, Zakayev controls a number of prominent battalions - and is the figure that the remaining former Kadyrovtsy who did not wish to reach the same fate as their former master have rallied around. As such, Chechnya has avoided the disintegration to tribal ties and warlordism that much of the North Caucasus has disintegrated into in the absence of leadership.

Nevertheless, Zakayev faces a major challenge. The economic devastation that has wrecked Russia has not spared Chechnya - Chechen GDP has fallen 86% from its 2020 value of ~$3.22 billion, leaving the region with a GDP of just ~$450.8 billion. Unemployment, which had fallen from 67% in 2006 to 21.5% in 2014, has risen back to enormously high levels. Important gas and oil exports have been destroyed by Western sanctions. The fledgling tourism industry has suffered under Russian isolationism. Construction and transportation has been harmed by the lack of supplies. Now, as in times previous, the only real economic output from Chechnya is in the traditional semi-nomadic agricultural and pastoral life that many leave - in Grozny, the situation is dire.

Politically, though Zakayev has a strong base and Kadyrov's followers and sycophants have been largely rooted out, he is not without challengers. Elections have not yet been held - though they are planned soon - and there are many key issues. Who to go for economic assistance, what the relationship with Russia and their Caucasus neighbors are to be, the issue of Islamization... all of it must be addressed.