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[Author's note: I basically left this claim on the back burner because of a combination of burnout, and disinterest in adding new posts after I sent my procurement post. I felt that I kicked the ball rolling toward the Falklands' confrontation with that procurement post which would not be ready till 2032. That said, it's 2031 now so I feel it's the best time to return. The post will basically include some of the ideas for posts I wanted to do throughout the rest of the few weeks I was off]
The world of the 2030s stands to be significantly different from the one of the 2020s. With the 2020s once developing to be a multipolar world with Russia and China emerging against the United States, the aftermath of the Ukrainian War and subsequent collapse of the Russian Federation led to a Chinese invasion and subsequent nuclear exchange causing the collapse of Russia as a functioning government and China falling from its laurels as the preeminent emerging superpower. This left global geopolitics in a frenzy and an uncertain future has arrived. The first use of nuclear weapons in a tactical exchange since the Second World War would forever change the calculus in foreign relations and send the rest of the Global South in limbo.
But what of the Southern Cone? The nation of Argentina can best be summed up as a high-stakes gambler in the world's most dangerous casino, betting its near future and fortunes on the seemingly inexorable rise in the might of China and profiting richly from acting as a Russian backdoor into the West. A wise decision at the time considering Argentina's existing limitations imposed by the United Kingdom and the West only further tightening as time went on. Of course, as a high-stakes gambler one knows too late, the house always wins. The subsequent Russo-Chinese War dashed all hopes for a bright Argentinian future, with the Buenos Aires Stock exchange going into free fall with investments to and from China being withdrawn as the nukes fell. The Argentinian Armed Forces went into a total brown alert mode with much of its procurement plans relying on Chinese manufacturers upholding their end of the bargain in a tumultuous political and economic period fearing that the Chinese may seize Argentinian warships still in drydock. Not to mention how the Federal Government was in a panic over how to respond to the crisis. It seems like the Argentinian Crisis of the 1990s was soon to be repeated.
2027 saw Incumbent President Jose Centurion of the JxC which merged his previously smaller far-right party into the cadres of the JxC lose the office of the Presidency over his cadre Horacio Rodriguez Laretta of the JxC party. A more moderate technocratic centrist who garnered significant popularity over his work as mayor of Buenos Aires and his careful political maneuvering, allying with the Fontainists of the "Cambio Nacional" coalition and more technocratic elements of the party earned him the political clout necessary to challenge and win in a primary against Jose Centurion. The "Cambio Nacional" Coalition thus evolved into a broad institutional and technocratic right-wing government with nationalistic undertones yet staunchly constitutionalist, neutering its more distasteful far-right populist elements, learning from the lessons from other countries' experiences under populist regimes. The reason for Centurion's sharp fall from grace was largely due to unrest from his seemingly strange Russophilic foreign policy, reversing a decades-long government policy of neutering the Argentinian Military and radical far-right social agenda which seemed to overturn much of Argentina's social progress of the last few decades such as abortion, LGBT rights, transgender rights, racial equality, and immigration. His fall was birthed from a miscalculation by the Argentinian population's distrust of populism and fears by both the political elite of the dangers of Russian alignment and the emergence of a galvanized Argentinian left.
The emergence of Horacio Rodriguez Laretta thus was a significant boon to the JxC to an otherwise potentially disastrous showing if Centurion stayed in power. Poised to tone down the conservative assault on civil rights instead, redirecting conservative efforts towards the military and national rejuvenation was seen as a powerful compromise to ward off a resurgence of leftist politics in Argentina to return in force. Laretta despite being a liberal technocrat, he understood the dangers of an unrestrained military, thus the Argentinian military was corporatized under the state in exchange for greater concessions and accession to budget demands of the military. It ensured commanders and ambitious officers were prevented to seek an overthrow of the elected government and remain loyal while addressing their demands and concerns through the corporation to the state. His position as moderate within his party and developmental goals allowed him to navigate the coalition in order to consolidate and entrench its power within the government and Argentinian society. In the aftermath of the Russo-Chinese War, Laretta saw the writing on the wall, He and his cabinet however, unlike the rest of the gamblers that came before him, will salvage whatever he can from the tumult to ensure Argentina's national project not lost.
While the Russian Federation entered its initial period of collapse, The Argentine Government issued an order to nationalize all Russian heritage assets in Argentina and behold them to a government commission which would then distribute them amongst the Argentinian business class and keep the rest for the government. Assets such as the gas giant Lukoil (which more than half of the shares already were owned by Argentina), Russian private mining corporations, manufacturing plants, oil wells, ammunition and gun production plants, industrial machinery, shipbuilding infrastructure, and any investments made by the Russians into Argentina. In addition, due to Argentina's close ties to Russia at this time, the Argentine Government offered visas to Russians willing to immigrate to Argentina and be granted honorary citizenship. Most valuable to Argentina was the safe securing of Russian medical laboratories in Argentina working on Advanced Radiotheranostic Cancer treatment, Quantified Imaging Accession and the YOCOBI SMES energy model, now working under the protection of the Ministry of Science and granted patents and citizenship to the Russian scientists working in Argentina and the protection of Russian facilities working on. In exchange, the Russians would be reimbursed for their lost investments through several billion worths of capital payments to help in Russia's expected currency meltdown. This enormous move was hoped that would signal to the West, of Argentina's change of outlook towards Russia and compliance with its sanctions, (not that its sanctions are necessary given the state of the country). The nationalization of such industries also granted Argentinians much-needed jobs to replace those lost during the meltdown and sold assets helped regain some solvency in the Argentinian peso which has historically been extremely weak. In regards to China, Argentina continued to maintain a tenuous but strong stance in maintaining cordial relations with the battered superpower, with the understanding that it represented easily the largest share of military procurement for Argentina, most of which may not be fully operational until 2032. Argentinian exports continued to flow towards China despite its economy suffering significant shocks that reverberated back to the nation. Argentina's GDP growth rate significantly slowed down after the War which showed the vulnerability of overreliance on Argentina's export economy to global powers hammered time and time again throughout its history.
This lackluster economic performance thus made it self-evident that Argentina must seek newer markets or continue down a pitiful economic performance. The consensus amongst the Argentine government, after the success of CELAC a decade prior, was thus to significantly strengthen bilateral ties with Brazil and become a prominent supporter of Latin American economic and political integration, while joining Brazillian efforts to enter the African market. Brazil already represented the largest share in bilateral trade with Argentina and this mutual assistance and understanding only strengthened the bonds of both nations. Some political analysts even state that Argentinian geopolitical alignment towards closer ties to Brazil may usher in the emergence of a South American power bloc that may amalgamate the disparate Latin American economic unions and partnerships into one. The partnership not only grew in economic but military as well, with Embraer, Astillero do Rio de Janeiro, IMBEL, and other Brazillian military enterprises assisting in the procurement of the Argentinian military as well as investing in Argentina's own military-industrial complex, complementing Brazil.
As the world enters 2030, Argentina is in the midst of a recovering economy, a rapid militarization drive, and stronger regional ties with Argentina's neighbors helped largely by Brazillian overtures. The stage is set for Argentina to look outwards once again, with old woes still left unresolved and the National Project inching ever closer to its deadline.
La Albiceleste shall rise on the South Atlantic, by blood alone.
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