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WHY NO POSTS ACTUALLY ABOUT GME???
GameStop has always been the catalyst...
This is probably going to be a controversial post when I don't intend it to be (and it shouldn't be taken that way). My intentions are not to call anyone out or any specific event out. I write DD about GME and in my opinion, we have too many DD writers writing about things other than GME. I thought it would be a great exercise to look at the daily GME price information in relation to events that have happened in the GME timeline.
My theory is that information coming from news.gamestop.com has been more impactful than anything else with regards to GameStop's stock price. In this theory, the overall impact on the price trends up with time as GameStop has only released good news. The other part to my theory is that other events we discuss in our sub are much impactful to the price long-term, but may have some small short term impacts.I will compare a couple groups of data, specifically the stock price on the day of the event:
- news.gamestop.com articles
- RC Ventures and DFV position events
- RC Tweets
- Negative/Other External Events - i.e. Mod Drama
I have also added a trend event to see what that looked like. The Reverse Repo Program is a great data set we can plot against GameStop
Before we get into it, a "how-to" read the charts you'll see
You'll see various columns of data in the following tables: Stock Price at Close, Stock Price at Open, Day Difference, High and Low. The values are used to make a standard candle chart but Google Sheets draws solid candles as bullish candles and empty fill candles as bearish. I've outlined a brief explanation of the candles used in the charts below:
Now on to the data! I will be linking out the datasets to everything in the post that is open-sourced on GitHub.
news.gamestop.com Releases
I started back with 11/20/2021 for gathering articles from news.gamestop.com. Then I went into Yahoo Finance and grabbed the data for those specific dates (close, open, high, low). I dropped the data in Google Sheets and got a chart:
It really does seem that the GameStop news has had a positive trend with the price over time. I have personally found the news during this timeframe to be overall very positive and directly in-line with what the company has communicated to investors. As each piece of good news comes out, it convinces a couple more investors that the digital transformation is going to be successful.
RC Ventures and DFV position events:
RC Tweets
Some of RC tweets happened on days the market was closed, so you'll see a "-" in those lines for the price and it will create a gap in the chart.
Negative/Other Events
I'm sure there could be a lot of data points added to this set, I just tried taking more known events and used them as examples. I defintely am not trying to say any of the DD posts in here are a waste of time or don't matter; that is not my intention. I personally believe these events just have less meaning than the news GameStop is releasing directly on their site.
Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements Data
Shout out to u/pctracer for tracking this data. His first post on this topic (I think) was 5/17/2021 (can't source due to brigading). Since we have a continuous trend, we can pull the graphs and look at them next to each other:
Looking at the data sets
news.gamestop.com - We can definitely see a positive trend overtime with the price. You SHOULD NOT take this graph as some sort of "cycle"; it may kinda look like that but there is no way of knowing when new posts will come up on news.gamestop.com and how the market will react to it. I suggest you take a moment to read through some of the titles in the table above and see how the story has progressed.RC Ventures and DFV position events - It's hard to say here because there are so few events here. We all know about DFV's double down post which had an obvious movement on the price that day. Other than that, we see little here mainly because they both were early in the saga. I only used DFV's latest posts because he had so many regular posts and those 2 were the most popular.
RC Tweets - There are definitely some really interesting data points here. You can see a downward trend in the start of July with RC's tweets, but overall the trend seems to look like an exponential curve that is plateauing. I mainly put this data set in because I thought people would want to see it, I did. RC tweets definitely have had some short term price movements
Other Events - This chart just screams "nothing" to me. The two days with the largest spreads was when the buy button was turned off and the SS migration during the second sneeze. Each other event didn't have a lasting impact on the price and the events all hover around $200.
Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreement Trend - These charts definitely don't look like they have any relation and us starting to talk about it didn't have any impact either. If this argument convinced others to invest in GameStop, we should see the price have some overall trend up. The mid-June spike does look to have a small jump in RRP which is interesting, but other spikes in RRP happen at the same time GME is trending downwards. I don't see consistency there.
It really does look like a lot of the prominent events in the GameStop cycle have been distractions to the real digital transformation news GameStop has been putting out there. MSM always cries they haven't heard the story from GameStop, but I feel like GameStop has been telling us a lot for awhile and we've been too busy looking at distractions rather than GameStop itself.
tl;dr: Reddit talking about GameStop's successful digital transformation is a SHF worst nightmare, they would rather us talk about literally ANYTHING else. We should be talking about GameStop's website, our purchases from GameStop, reviews we write for GameStop purchases, nft.gamestop.com updates, like anything GameStop.
CALL TO ACTION - GameStop DD Authors should try to focus research on GameStop's thriving business. I don't have enough time and there are so many things that don't get covered from their digital story. 10K/Q analysis is always extremely light and I'm guilty of not getting enough time to post what I have sitting on my computer. Imagine what u/Criand 's thorough research could do in finding new details about GameStop; I know I would be super excited to see that! Or what if u/pctracer's daily RRP post was about GameStop's e-commerce SKU count?
I'm not trying to say any of the past DD is a waste of time, but I do think news about GameStop's successful turn around is the most impactful thing any GameStop investor can add. The information from news.gamestop.com definitely has a better correlation with the overall increase in price and a good example data point in there is the nft.gamestop.com release which actually wasn't an official announcement, it was found and spread through Reddit. If more of this was found and called out, it could have a much bigger impact than we think. Instead we get caught up in Evergrande, Kenny flying planes, the market collapse, mod drama, Bill Gates is short GME, Bezos needs to be looked into, fidelity are shills, Computershare are shills, brokers are shills, u/digi-transformation is a shill, GameStop can't succeed until everything has been exposed and people are in jail! (I laugh so hard when I see these comments).
If you don't believe me, just look at the posts from today. You'll find a ton of DD and other posts on Computershare (I stopped counting after 20), but I couldn't find any posts that were actually about GameStop.
This is one reason I try to focus my time/research on the company itself.I call it all a distraction because it's all much simpler, it's just GameStop. We talk about GameStop doing awesome and hold the fantastic news up like a boombox. The media isn't covering GameStop, so we have to. You can't escape my boombox
I'm also going to start adding a disclaimer to the end of my DD in the sake of transparency (but remember, I'm just a dump ape).
digi-disclaimer: This is not financial advice and I am not a financial advisor. I am an active investor in GameStop and share my research as I find it. I currently hold a large position of GameStop across Computershare, Fidelity and E-Trade; I also make a recurring investment twice a month in GameStop through Computershare and I have no plans on changing this recurring investment. You should perform your own due diligence before making any new (or changes to existing) investments
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