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Many of you will have seen this thread about HFs shorting through ETFs and what that means.ETF DD from earlier today
Please refer to it to understand the mechanics of why what I'm about to describe will be a potential outcome for the next few weeks.
My understanding is this. The post lays out the theory that the reason we saw growth today to the degree we did was because they had ETFs they had shorted to the point where they had to start returning shares.
That means today is a tipping point. If they truly have run out of ammo, today shows us what kind of resistance to expect from this point forward.
If we use today's growth (as a baseline) of 64%, we get the following growth.
1 day 191.8
2 days 314.7
3 days 516.4
4 days 846.4
5 days 1,388
6 days 2,276.4
7 days 3,733
8 days 6,123
9 days 10,041
10 days 16,467
11 days 27,006
12 days 44,291
13 days 72,637
14 days 119,124
15 days 195,364
16 days 320,369
17 days 525,450
18 days 861,738
19 days 1,413,250
20 days 2,317,730
21 days 3,801,077
22 days 6,233,766
23 days 10,223,377
Now, as I said above, this is only IF the assumptions about ETFs above is true. If this is our baseline of growth, then that's a rough estimate of our trajectory IF NOTHING CHANGES.
Edit: since I wasn't clear THIS IS NOT A PREDICTION OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN. It is simply a reference point to where today's growth would take us if it sustains at today's rate based on extrapolations off the DD referenced above. The eventual squeeze will not be smooth, will not be anywhere near mathematically perfect, and will eventually be MUCH FASTER than this. This is not what I believe the squeeze looks like. This is what happens if the minimal extra pressure potentially exerted by ETF shorting continues at a steady rate with NO OTHER MITIGATING FACTORS. If we trigger gamma, or the HFs get margin called, or a host of other possibilities, that will change and accelerate this. If the ETF shorting isn't affecting things the way theorized above, this falls apart. Thank you for humoring me, and I don't mind being wrong abut this.
Now! If the scenarios in the above thread are true, we will see exponential pressure increasing on the shorted ETFs, which means the rate of growth of 64% will only grow, which will obviously shave a TON of time off of that schedule.
It could also go horribly bad and we're going to be holding till 4/20 when Ryan Cohen personally visits every one of our houses to deliver our tendies in person.
This is a VERY conditional situation, but I found it very intriguing.
I'm also an ape.
To the Moon!!!!
🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Edit: working on formatting on mobile
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