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What's your non-consensus view about the next 20-30 years?
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These views are all consensus now, and some version of them form all the top posts in this subreddit:

  • AI is going to take over all our jobs
  • Robot tech will be super advanced
  • Climate change is going to huge problems
  • Inflation is going to get worse
  • Income inequality is going to get worse

You know what they say about when the masses think something, history has a way of looking very different.

So what are your non-consensus views? What are the masses missing?

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Positive: I think demographic sizes (be they presumably too high or presumably too low) will be a vastly lower issue than commonly said.

Negative: Microplastics will be a vastly bigger problem than commonly assumed. I don't think human civilization is likely to end in its entirety one way or another, but IMHO microplastics have a better chance than most. Even moreso than climate change. We have some theoretical plans on mitigating the latter and none for the former and frankly plastic and its hormonal and mechanical effects on the bodies on ALL lifeforms have no equivalent in earth's history meaning there's no real adaptational pathway written in the genetic record of its inhabitants.

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7 months ago