https://preview.redd.it/j036nsv9w3tc1.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=950e877ee87b071fa629f03130c0e2022c3992ce

this report pulls price action on ES to see how often price has a single break, double break or no break out or below the initial balance.

for context: the initial balance (IB) is the range, the high to the low, in the first hour of market open, which is from 9:30 - 10:30AM ET.

what I found was that in the past 3 years, ES has only had one break out/down of the IB 70% of the time - meaning that if price breaks the high, it's not going to break the low and vice versa.

the takeaway: if you see price move beyond the high of the first hour of market open, don't expect it to break below the low of the first hour of market open. same goes for the opposite - if you notice that price moved beyond the low of the first hour of market open, don't expect it reverse and breakout above the high of the first hour of market open.

you can use this to set profitable targets around where price has a tendency to move.