Hey y’all,

The below sections do the following: [1] lists our current class, [2] provides the ranking and notes on same, [3.A] lists out our optimistic yet realistic targets at each position going forward—that is, the goal of this is to figure out, if we hit on all of our reasonably possible but not silly targets remaining, who we would get (for example, I think LeBlanc is still in play though we’re losing, but Baxter is a goner); [3.B.] prioritizes the remaining folks assuming we have our dream list; [4] gives recruiting notes on how we’re doing with those targets; and [5] includes a summary of where we would be with various permutations of these players.

This is an optimistic take. It is not likely to happen, but I wanted to try to find a realistic-optimistic ceiling for this class. Obviously, this is tricky because of offer pulling and processing both at and across positions (e.g., we want both WRs and so cut at a diff position rather than process Whittemore or something]. It is not perfect, it is just a rough effort.

TL;DR: Read I, III.B, IV. and V. Or read none. Idk what you want from me, it’s long.

GDE.

P.S.—Thanks to numerous members of the Discord for their input as I drunkly rambled about this, including Steel, Zlat, Bhg7, CCasey, Rorikstead, GoG8terEP, WowCollector, and others I’m forgetting.

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*The brackets = [star rating/player rating/national rating/position rating], all according to 247 Composite.

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I. Current Class

QB – M. Stokes [4*/0.8906/397/22]

RB – T. Webb [4*/0.9322/162/5]

WR – E. Wilson III [4*/0.9366/147/10], C. Whittemore [3*/0.8836/471/34], T. Patterson [3*/0.8652/810/108]

OL – K. Harris [4*/0.8916/392/23], B. Lovett [3*/0.8758/594/50]

DL – J. Hill [4*/0.9108]

LB – T.J. Searcy [4*/0.9341/153/20], I. Nixon [4*/0.9224/195/29]

CB – A. Gates [4*/0.9014/318/19]

Saf. – S. Denson [4*/0.9204/205/24]

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II Notes on Current Class

Class currently sits at 20 overall, with 12 commits, 10 from FL, 2 from GA. 200.22 points with a 90.54 average. Nine 4*s and three 3*s. This will operate as our baseline.

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III.A. Optimistic Targets and Players to Watch/Rough Needs [Note: as this is an analysis of our 2023 recruiting class, portal candidates are not included; not also we will certainly not be taking another QB or TE from HS. Note also I am just listing players in order of rating here]]

RB [ideally 1 more] – unknown whether taking

WR [ideally these 2 specifically] -- A. Mizell [4*/0.9472/115/18], A. Jean [4*/0.9037/299/38]

OL [need roughly 2] -- M. Freeling [4*/0.9699/62/8], L. Simmons [4*/0.9502/109/13[OT]], P. Kirkland [4*/0.9100/260/25 [OT]]

DL [need roughly 1 more] -- K. Collins [4*/0.9684/65/6], D. LeBlanc [4*/0.9634/77/7], J. Walker [4*/0.9537/97/11], W. Norman [4*/0.9465/116/17], J. Hall [4*/0.9336/157/21] K. James [4*/0.9112/250/37], K. McDonald [0.9045/293/41]

LB [need roughly 4] – M. Bryant [4*/0.9778/49/3]. L. Carter [4*/0.9275/177/12], K. Overton [4*/0.8955/359/30]

CB [no major need but takes] -- C. McClain [5*/0.9992/3/1], J. Jackson [4*/0.9086/268/30]

S [no major need but both takes] -- J. Castell [4*/0.9187/216/15], D. Sorey [4*/0.9296/178/26 [as WR]], B. Thornton [3*/0.8826/488/45]

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III. B. Optimal Priority

Now, clearly we have an issue, because we have many guys we’d love to get but 12 guys we already have (and love!). For purposes of this analysis, I am assuming none of our current class leaves or gets processed, it just makes it to messy. So assuming all 12 “Currents” stick, we need to rank the above in order of priority. This is hard because obviously we want them all but also because, say we got all the DLs—one isn’t gonna come, that’s silly. But all the WRs are possible. So it’s a balance of needs and realism in terms of player choice. Below, I attempt to list the Players to Watch in the order of Reasonable Takes, assuming they all wanted to commit tomorrow.

I attempted to include a focus on positions of need here as reasonable. You may disagree with this but it’s not a science and just meant to give a general sense.

1. Takes No Matter What:

**--**McClain [CB], Mizell [WR], Jean [WR], Walker [DL], Bryant [LB]

--James [DL] or LeBlanc [DL]

--Norman [DL] or Hall [DL],

--Kirkland [OL] or Simmons [OL]

2. Takes Based On Need: Collins [DL], Freeling [OL], Overton [LB], McDonald [DL], Carter [LB], Jackson [CB], Castell [S]

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3. Potential Pass: Sorey [Likely S], Thornton [S]

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IV. Crooting Notes on “Takes No Matter What” [I did not dig through the boards again for this so, just used the sites and my memory of what I've read/heard--if anyone has information they think super relevant to update for these guys, let me know and I can revise]

McClain [Lakeland, FL]: Both On3 and 247 have UF as the leader here. From what I’ve been seeing, Bama and Miami are the other big names with Georgia also in play. Has OVed to Miami, Georgia, and Miami and UVed to UF multiple times.

Mizell [Orlando, FL]: Both On3 and 247 have Florida as the heavy favorite, with Alabama, Georgia, and Tennessee in play. Mizell does not currently have a commitment date. Both parents ran track for Florida . He has said he wants to commit before his senior year starts. Of note, following the Stokes and Wilson commits last week, Mizell tweeted that news was coming soon.

Jean [Miami, FL]: On3 has Jean predicted to the Gators. Miami, Georgia, Bama, and TAMU are in play, but Florida looks good here. Visited in June and has named Florida his leader. Jean will be attending FNL the last weekend this month.

Walker [Osceola, FL]: 247 has OSU in front, On3 says Florida. Top 5 are UF, Michigan, Miami, OSU, and UCF. Walker will be committing 7/28.

Bryant [Orlando, FL]: On3 has Bama in the lead here with Florida running second. I’ve also heard rumors Miami may make a play. I would predict Bama at this point.

James [Orlando, FL]: Both On3 and 247 predict James strongly to UF. He will be attending FNL.

LeBlanc [Osceola, FL]: Teammate of Walker and Jackson, planning to commit on July 28. We lead in 247 and (barely) on On3 (compared to OU). Has visited a bunch but recently perception is he is trending away. OU and Penn are in play but as of now I would take the field against us. But this one could go any way.

Norman [IMG]: 247 has a split between UF and PSU, and On3 has UF and TAMU leading. OVed to UF in June.

Hall [Jacksonville, FL]: 247 predicts FSU and On3 has UF and FSU as the leaders.

Kirkland [Orlando, FL]: 247 has Michigan State, Florida, and Miami leading, but On3 has Miami in front. Based on what I’ve seen around, I think Miami is the leader here with Florida as second. Committing July 23 but planning to attend Florida’s FNL the following weekend, which likely won’t happen if/when he picks Miami.

Simmons [Clearwater, FL]: 247 doesn’t have a leader but UF, FSU, Tenn., and USC (maybe) are the schools to watch. On3 has FSU far in front which tracks my understanding. We’ll know tomorrow on this one as that’s when he commits. Not expecting but including.

V. Analysis and Takeaways

Oh man, it’s been a journey getting this far. This has taken forever. Now for the fun part, let’s play with the Class Calculator

So for a first permutation, I’m going to take our current class and add in the 8 “Takes No Matter What” from Sec. III. But where I have “X or Y” I am giving us just the higher rated player (for example, LeBlanc, not James). That gets us to 20 commits, 278.4, with a 5 star, three 3 stars, and the rest 4 stars. This would’ve been good for 7th last year. Let’s add Castell who I feel very good about. Now we’re 281 and good for 6th last year. Take out Bryant, we’re at 273 and good for 8th. Note: I expect Simmons to be off the board tomorrow so we could probably use Kirkland but you can do that yourself if you want.

Let’s try again but only give ourselves the lesser of the “or” takes. So this is all the “Takes No Matter What” but, for example, James instead of LeBlanc. That gets us to 269.61, with the same star breakdowns and good for 8th last year.

Anyway, infinite ways you can play with this—and you should. And even if we were to land 8 guys from that group, we’d still have more spots to fill and no one knows some of the kids who aren’t on radar yet. Obviously if we don’t hit on all those guys and go down the board, things change. And of course it's highly unlikely we will hit on all those guys--Bryant and Simmons come immediately to mind and are big pieces, particularly the former. Ditto LeBlanc. Suffice to say, Cormani is an absolute must. So it's all in flux but I hope you've enjoyed the read on a sense of what a highly optimistic—but realistic—class could look like.