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Areas of Improvement for Kyle Trask

To the dismay of myself and many other Gator fans, PFF ranked Kyle Trask the #48 QB heading into the 2020 season. Their evaluation of Trask was strongly tied to PFF's use of a their in-house metric: Big-Time Throws to Turnover-Worthy Plays Differential. Based on this metric, PFF graded Trask with 9 Big-Time Throws, 22 Turnover-Worthy Plays, and a (-13) differential between the two. This large and negative PFF differential was tied for fourth worst in all of FBS last year.

To be perfectly honest, I think this metric is totally bogus. It's highly subjective, has no track record of being useful, and is poorly documented. Plus, in my judgement there are well over a dozen throws Trask made last year which I would call "Big-Time." However, what I do agree with PFF about is that Trask did make a lot of risky throws in 2019. By my count, Trask threw 7 Interceptions as well as 7 Almost Interceptions (14 Interceptable Passes total). So in addition to 5 fumbles, PFF might not have been too far off with their 22 Turnover-Worthy Plays count. To me, our fanbase should accept the mindset that Kyle Trask is a gunslinger. He might not have the elite arm talent usually associated with the phrase, but he plays with that mindset.

Interceptable Passes

Several patterns emerged when I reviewed Trask's 14 Interceptable Passes. I broke his Interceptable Passes down into the four generalized categories below. It's not a perfect system and it ignores the role the other offensive players. But overall I feel like this categorization does a decent job at getting at where Trask was weakest last year and where he can improve in 2020. Some passes fell into multiple categories.

• A - Pressure (8 passes): Rather than take a sack or leave the pocket, Trask will force a risky pass

• B - Lost LB/S (7 passes): Trask has a tendency to overlook a LB or S in coverage

• C - Tight Windows (5 passes): Trask isn't afraid to throw at covered receivers

• D - Bad Throws (2 passes): Very occasionally Trask just threw an inaccurate pass

In 2020, I'm hoping to see improvement in how Trask (A) Deals with Pressure and (B) Reads non-CB Defenders in Coverage. I feel like these two things can be improved with more reps and game experience. Going forward I'm actually not expecting to see a reduction in (C) Tight Window throws, that is just part of Trask's game.

GIFS

Below are each of the Interceptable Passes I saw Trask throw in 2019. Take a look yourself and see if you notice any patterns or areas for improvement. Also, let me know if I missed any Interceptable Passes not shown here.

1. UT Martin - Almost Interception. Screen blows up, putting pressure on Trask to get rid of it quickly or take a sack. He overlooks the ability of the Linebacker to cover the pass. Cat A/B.

2. Tenn - Interception. Trask throws to a covered receiver. Cat C.

3. Tenn - Interception. Tight coverage and Trask underestimates the ability of the Safety to make a play on the ball. Cat B/C.

4. LSU - Almost Interception. Pressure leads to Trask throwing off his back foot and almost gives up a pick to Delpit on an underthrown ball. Cat A.

5. LSU - Interception. Trask feels pressure and doesn't get his feet set. Then makes a throw to a tight window that Swain can't get. Cat A/C.

6. USC - Interception. Feels a little pressure on the screen and the balls slips out of his hand on a bad throw. Cat A/D.

7. UGA - Almost Interception. Trask feels some pressure from the edge and overlooks the Safety. Cat A/B.

8. Vandy - Interception. Trask never sees the Safety jumping the route. Cat B.

9. Vandy - Interception. Just a back shoulder throw in tough coverage that get's tipped and picked. Cat C.

10. Vandy - Almost Interception. Trask feels the pressure and underestimates the coverage abilities of the LBs. Cat A/B.

11. Mizzou - Almost Interception. Trask loses the LB who almost gets a pick-six. Cat B.

12. Mizzou - Almost Interception. Trask feels some pressure and throws off his back foot into tight coverage. Cat A/C.

13. Virginia - Interception. Trask feels the pressure and throws off his back foot, he also underestimates the ability of the Safety to get to this ball. Cat A/B.

14. Virginia - Almost Interception. Just a rare pure bad throw by Trask. Cat D.

Conclusions

To be clear: I really like Trask. He's by far the best Gator QB we've had since Grier, and possibly even as far back at Tebow. He does take risks though and it leads to an above average number of Interceptable Passes. It's okay to have high expectations for Trask in 2020. But also try to temper them. Heading into 2020, how would you feel about Trask if all 14 of these passes had been intercepted? How are you going to feel about him if in 2020 he continues to make bad throws under pressure or occasionally hits an LB in the hands with a pass?

I expect Trask to have a great season. I also expect that our Offensive Line is going to look pretty similar to last year. I expect for Trask to feel pressure. I expect that our receiving corp will not be as good as last season. I expect that Trask will face talented defensive coordinators and elite LB/S groups that will try to bait him into potential turnovers. If Trask shows improvements in dealing with these areas of the game, it will be reasonable to expect big things from the Gator passing game. If he continues to throw Interceptable Passes when a defender gets in his face, it will eventually hurt us badly, and potentially even cost us a winnable game and shot at the playoff. Quarterback is the most important position on the field. Trask doesn't have to be perfect in 2020, but he does have to be better.