I think a common goal here, including mine, is to be mortgage free. I'm relatively young at 37 with a decent career and 401k matching. I got very lucky on some market timings and I have a total of over $500k in retirement accounts (started at 0 and with student loans at 25). I owe about $295k on my mortgage and I got in on the low APRs of 3% just before covid. I live in an area where I only have reason to believe that population growth would make my house value go up over time. Should I rollover my retirement and take out enough and just pay my house off? Is the time value loss of mortgage interest over the next 25 years, and time value of no mortgage with ability to invest/save more, more valuable than the returns of $295k of capital invested as-is?

Using this https://www.nerdwallet.com/calculator/compound-interest-calculator
$0 later contributions, this is lump sum in my investments I would take out:
$295k initial investment, assuming 8% return = $2M in 25 years
$295k mortgage at 3.1% apr = $635k spent in 25 years
Am I doing that right? Compounding returns assuming 8% return beats not paying off the mortgage by $1.4M net, and average returns for the stock market over 25 years would have to be as low as 3.1% to break even. On the flip side, if I did do it I would save $2k a month for 25 years in cash flow and still have ~$2M (assuming 8% market return) by age 57, possibly retiring much earlier.

The no mortgage of $2k/month, if instead invested, at 8% avg return is $1M in ~18 years. And, save $300k not paying 25 years of mortgage interest. So at age 57 I would have ~$1M to retire early with, and then the ~$2M of 401k to tap into at age 62. Or, be a slave until age 62 with $5M in 401k at that time, and paying a mortgage that whole time.

Nuking the mortgage sounds like the best bet for freedom of options over the next 20 years. My dad died suddenly at 61. I just cannot see a future of waiting until 62 to retire like a king. It’s a fantasy. Life doesn’t go like that.