WARNING

This post now reflects the nerfed unit's kit. This means her damage dropped quite a bit below what it was. I striked all text that had to do with her un-nerfed damage, but something still may have slipped. I updated all the comparison tables to the other units.

So, a lot of disagreement has sparked on this sub because of Esther, whether she should be nerfed or not and what this means to the game. I'm making this post to state facts. I'm not putting my own opinion around, mostly cuz I'm just a player who's doesnt even have any kind of influence nor more knowledge than others in the sub.

Opening Thoughts

What we know about Esther is pretty simple. Her kit is a baseline kit of CG Spoiler Chairman, who's rotation is quite simple: LB -> filler skills -> LB. He's an unit who should be released somewhere around 7 months from where we are now in the timeline.

I've messed around with a rotation for her, and what I found to be the optimal one is as follow:

Turn 1: Doublecast Shock Embrace (Imbue Imperil 20 LB crystals) and Combat Overdrive (200% ATK.).
Turn 2: LB -> This assumes she's going to get the crystals she need. A non-STMR build means she's earning 3,5 lb per turn, which means she needs 16,5 red crystals to be able to use it. She has 100% fill rate buff innately, assuming a 200% external buff that's 300%, which means 1 crystal drop = 4 crystals in the LB gauge. She's gonna need, roughly, 4 crystals in each one. This is a kinda big number tbh, since it is 4 at each of the Esthers but there's another means to mitigate it. Demagnetizing Strike x3 (Higher mod than Bolting Strike after Combat Overdrive.)
Turn 3: LB
Turn 4: Demagnetizing Strike x2 Storm Clouds (Chain 30 LB crystals)
Turn 5: LB
Turn 6: Imbue Chain.

And then she resumes it from turn 3, imbue-ing whenever needed and replacing Demagnetizing for Bolting Strike

Now, the damage done isnt exactly certain. I'm not the most accurate when looking at those damage charts, but since her rotation is quite straightforward there's not a lot of room to miss, and thus I think I should be safe posting it.

Build

This is the used build, no STMR/Limited Time TMRs.

Esther 7★
Right hand: Lion Heart ATK 150, ATK 30% (IW :ATK 15%, ATK 10%, ATK 5%)
Head: Prishe's Hairpin HP 10%, MP 10%, ATK 45
Body: Hyoh's Clothes ATK 28, ATK 30%, DEF 42
Accessory 1: Storm Kickers HP 20%, ATK 45, DEF 10
Accessory 2: Marshal Glove ATK 40
Materia 1: Buster Style
Materia 2: Heart Overcoming Hatred
Materia 3: War Goddess' Insignia ATK 30%
Materia 4: Discernment
Esper: Odin HP 102, MP 89, ATK 113, DEF 98, MAG 71, SPR 70
Total: HP:12513, MP:541, ATK:2483, DEF:567, MAG:272, SPR:358

I'll be using as a parameter cumulative damage. I don't like Average Damage as comparison, mostly because it disguises burst turns which is an important mechanic.

That's a bunch of numbers, but what matters is how does she looks like vs other damage dealers.

EDIT: Those are post-nerf numbers.

I'll start with Akstar, since he's the most "famous" unit coming soon.

Akstar

Basically, she start 3 times stronger than Akstar, and it goes progressively down as Akstar builds his stacks. Overall tweaks. Stagger point is close to 200%, which means even fully stacked Akstar deals half of her damage.

CG Lightning

The next big gap in damage is CG Lightning. Will do the same kind of math here.

The difference is now far smaller. CG Lightning is a late-peaker like Akstar, which means she needs to stack a lot before going full potential, and then they stagger with around ~~2530% more damage in favour of Esther.~~

CG Bartz

This is kinda... Funny. We're now comparing Esther with JP's benchmark for damage at the start of last month. Anyway, same comparison again.

Again a late-peaker, the thing is that CG Bartz stacks a lot. He reduces the damage difference drastically from turn 6 onwards. However, important to note that he cant match Esther even by turn 22, being an irrelevant amount (closee to 15%) below her.

CG Spoiler Chairman

The last one we'll compare her too is, funny enough, the JP unit with a heavily similar kit to hers.

So, CG Spoiler peaks very early, hitting more damage to her on his first LBs (mostly cuz his LB is buffed by his own CD, not by the LB itself, which means his first one already is fully "modded"). They each have their burst turns, but it looks stable that Esther is an irrelevant amount below him (again, same as Bartz. <15%).

Last Thoughts

This means, mostly, that Esther is on par with JP's meta now. She's below their top dogs, but by a not-that-big margin, and I honestly could totally see her being released today on JP's server.

About nerfing: Regardless of your opinion being supportive or not to this, it would be a bad overall move to Gumi's reputation. They just got out of a really... rough situation and started to get the player base's affection again, which may be heavily impacted by this kind of move. However, it is certain that Esther is not matching the game's current powercreep (or any kind of powercreep at all honestly).

If, as the banner goes live tomorrow, it isnt nerfed, I would say you're safe to pull. The likelihood of a nerf dropping after the banner is live is low, and it would, then, leave to a major outrage.

TL:DR

Esther outdamages all units till Bartz, who she's slightly above, and CG Spoiler 1.0, who she's slightly below overall.

Please, keep it civil in the comment section. A lot of hatred is being thrown left and right, and it is honestly kinda sad to see the community enthrall with themselves this much

Edits

Forgot to add the build, derp. Now on the post.

As a late edit (got caught up in the hype, sorry) I forgot to mention /u/jonidschultz and his big help. He started the whole calcs and got me involved in those

Thanks for those who warned about cooldown's mechanics. Weird thing lol. Didnt change much tho.

IMPORTANT: NUMBERS FIXED TO MATCH THE BANNER NERF