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Since I was bored again after clearing story event, I decided to reroll and pull on the reward wheel to check the rates. Here are my findings:
| Lapis reward | Count | Observed percent | Expected percent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 128 | 64% | 29% |
| 10 | 21 | 10.5% | 19% |
| 15 | 30 | 15% | 21% |
| 30 | 15 | 7.5% | 13% |
| 100 | 4 | 2% | 10% |
| 200 | 2 | 1% | 8% |
| Total | 200 | 100% | 100% |
As compared to the rates estimated from the visual presentation of the wheel by u/Jack_Mikeson in this post, the observed rate of 5 lapis is two times higher than estimated. Similarly, the rates of 100 and 200 lapis are over-represented on the wheel.
Overall, from the 70 pulls we are going to get for 14 days (5 each day), the expected pulls (based on the observed rates) would be as such:
| Lapis reward | Expected count | Expected lapis |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | 45 | 225 |
| 10 | 7 | 70 |
| 15 | 11 | 165 |
| 30 | 5 | 150 |
| 100 | 1 | 100 |
| 200 | 1 | 200 |
| Total | 70 | 910 |
EDIT: Reformat tables
TLDR;
- Dont trust the wheel image
- Expect 5 lapis 64% of the time (or all the time)
- If you get 200 lapis, that's top 1% pull right there. Go buy lottery.
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- 5 years ago
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