Hello all,

I would hope by now that my posts don't need the level of introduction I've been giving in the past. If you don't know me, I'm the guy that tries to compare efficiencies between farming events and farming earth shrine. Past examples of this include the Akademia event, the Mana Mystery event, and the Operation MA Demolition event. I know there are a lot of points to be made for why farming events provides more enjoyment, less time commitment, potential future benefits, etc... I can't speak to everyone's individual circumstance. What I can do is break down the time and cost of farming certain rewards and compare it to an equivalent amount of time spent TM farming. However, this comparison serves no purpose unless it can be quantified. Thus I will also assign (based solely on in-game viability) values to TM's and rewards, and then compare those values. Again, your values may differ, but I will try to provide reasoning in each situation for why I value something as such. Anyway, this explanation might not mean much without some data/numbers, so I'll get right to it. Please note, this will be a long post.

My Personal Rating System

I use a 0-3 rating system that breaks down in the following way:

3 - Equipment/character/materia with long-term utility that will maintain its top-tier status for many months or is capable of enhancements in the future that will significantly improve its potential. Ex: Noctis/Orlandeau/Olive, dual-wield/dual-cast, Excalibur/Deathbringer, etc...

2 - Moderate utility that will last beyond the current event and provide plot progression and/or trial completion. Ex: highest attack/defense elemental equipment, moderately upgraded (but not top-tier) or niche characters/equipment/materia (depends on current party setup).

1 - Minimal utility that provides temporary progression, lackluster upgrades, or allows one to farm an event more efficiently. Ex: Soleil, materia/equipment for her. (A 1 ranked character may become a 0 after the event is over. They may also be a 2 during and after the event. Again it depends on your current party setup.)

0 - No utility. Easily outclassed in the future and/or already irrelevant. Ex: Megacite, recovery items, useless materia/equipment.

Energy = Red Orbs

Estimated rate of a chocobo encounter (PRO: 7.5 ± 2.5%, ELT: 10 ± 2.5%), 3 chocobos per encounter, average chocobo bonus of 900 red orbs, average 75% bonus for friend unit (not based on % chance to pull)

PRO – 19.95 ± 2.25 Red Orbs/Energy (~6,000/day)

• 1 friend unit – 34.91 ± 3.94 Red Orbs/Energy (~10,400/day)

• 1 friend unit and X bonus – (34.91 ± 3.94) (19.95 ± 2.25)(X/100) Red Orbs/Energy (~extra 3,000/day with a 50% bonus unit, 4,500/day with a 75% bonus unit, and 6,000/day with a 100% bonus unit)

ELT – 23.7 ± 1.74 Red Orbs/Energy (~7,100/day)

• 1 friend unit – 41.48 ± 3.05 Red Orbs/Energy (~12,400/day)

• 1 friend unit and X bonus – (41.48 ± 3.05) (23.7 ± 1.74)(X/100) Red Orbs/Energy (extra ~3,600/day with a 50% bonus unit, ~5,300/day with a 75% bonus unit, and ~7,100/day with a 100% bonus unit)

Note: I only list Pro and Elt because I believe if you can't farm either, you shouldn't worry about TM farming yet.

To Dune or not to Dune

This section can be skipped if you already read it from the Operation MA Demolition post simply because the conclusion is the same. Nonetheless, here is what to consider about running the Dunes event.

With the recent changes to the Cactuar Dunes event, you now have a chance to obtain anywhere between 50k - 210k experience, which corresponds to 1.67 - 7 Metal Gigantaurs. Let's say the average is somewhere between 3 and 4. That means your gigantaur/energy ratio is between 0.2 - 0.267.

On the other hand, from the event you can obtain 1 gigantaur (max 100) for 100 red orbs. But is your gigantaur/energy ratio higher or lower than dunes?

The Math
Assumptions - Estimated rate of a chocobo encounter (PRO: 7.5 ± 2.5%, ELT: 10 ± 2.5%), 3 chocobos per encounter, average chocobo bonus of 900 red orbs, average 75% bonus for friend unit (not based on % chance to pull)

PRO (w/ 1 friend) - 349 ± 39 Red Orbs/10 energy
This is a gigantaur/energy ratio of 0.349 ± 0.039

ELT (w/ 1 friend) - 535 ± 40 Red Orbs/13 energy
This is a gigantaur/energy ratio of 0.412 ± 0.031

Conclusion
Even with only a single friend unit, both PRO and ELT offer better gigantaur/energy ratios than the dunes. The average number of gigantaurs you would need to obtain per run to be as efficient as the event is 5 for Pro and 6 for Elt. If you only want efficiency, do the event. If you need more than 100 gigantaurs or don't like the tedium of farming the event, do the dunes while it's available.

The Analysis

Important: All costs should be compared in value to an equal amount of time spent TM farming where most top TM's have a value of 3 when completed (300 energy/day = 0.15 TM progress/day = 0.45 value/day).

This event has several interesting items that I will look into in more detail. For now though, I want to detail how much time spent TM farming is equivalent to a 1 value reward and the amount of red orbs that can be obtained in that much time.

For a 1 value reward
It would take 2.22 days to achieve 1 TM value from TM farming. In those 2.22 days:

• PRO w/ 1 friend - can obtain 23,243 ± 2,600 Red orbs.
• ELT w/ 1 friend - can obtain 27,400 ± 2,050 Red orbs.
• PRO w/ X bonus - can obtain an extra 13,300(X/100) Red Orbs.
• ELT w/ X bonus - can obtain an extra 15,700(X/100) Red Orbs.

How to Apply These Numbers
To determine if it is worth purchasing a reward you deem has a value of 1, calculate the amount of red orbs you will gather on average in 2.22 days given your farming rate bonus. If the reward costs less than this, it is efficient to buy. Let's say I want to buy the HP 15% materia, priced at 15,000 Red Orbs. This materia has a value of 1 to me. Farming ELT w/ 1 friend unit will earn me a minimum of 25,350 Red Orbs in the time I can obtain 1 TM value from TM farming. Thus the reward is a more efficient use of my energy for the value I'm obtaining. On the other hand, the MAG 15% materia is priced at 35,000 Red Orbs. This costs more than the maximum amount of Red Orbs I can obtain in 2.22 days, and so is less efficient if I value it a 1.

The Trickiest Items to Value

Durandal: This item for me has a value of 1 only because I already have Excalibur but could use a second holy weapon greatsword to chain with. Without Excalibur it would be valued at a 2 as it is the highest holy damage greatsword available. Multiple Excaliburs will lower the value while having multiple greatsword users (Orlandeau, Luneth, Gilgamesh, Noctis, etc...) will increase its value.

Kiyomori: This one is tricky because it is so expensive and with the Gilgamesh trial, katanas are not a rare commodity. One situation where I see it being used is with Chizuru chainers and another unit that finishes with a katana (and blade mastery hopefully). That would require 5 katanas, although two would have to be elemental such as kazekiris. Thus in order to maximize damage with the chain, a player would need 3 high damage katanas. These include the Genji Blade, Sakurafubuki, Chirijiraden, and now Kiyomori. Considering that I have the first three, I see no need for Kiyomori and will rate it a 1 only because I could use it if an enemy is fire resistant. For someone trying to build a 100% dodge unit (which I am not), I can easily see it being valued a 2 or even a 3 since it is the only weapon with dodge AFAIK.

First Strike: I don't claim to be an expert on 100% dodge builds, but I think that unless you plan to achieve that status, 5% extra dodge is useless. The counter chance is a nice bonus and I can see it being used on Snow for extra orbs, but I wouldn't sacrifice it for a slot that can potentially add 30% HP or 30% ATK. Thus, for me, this materia is worthless. For someone looking to increase their dodge to 100%, there were 4 materias during the Akademia event that provided the same bonus. There are also Shine and Cyan's TMs that provide twice the bonus. However, it can still be bought if it is valued even as a 1.

The Moogles: Nope... not going to start this argument again.

Conclusion

Almost all of the rewards are below 25,000 Red Orbs, so there is no need to do additional analyses. If you deem that something has a value of 1 (i.e. minimal utility/temporary progression), it is safe to buy as long as it isn't the moogles the MAG 15% materia, and Kiyomori.

The MAG 15% materia and 30k moogle are only safe to buy if they are valued at a 2 for you. Kiyomori is right on the edge of being safe to buy as a 2, so I would say it is only efficient if you feel it has long-term utility for your party.

The 10k moogles are a joke and are basically Gumi slapping us in the face. In total they are almost twice the price of the 30k moogle and provide half the value. I would not buy them...

To pull or not to pull

I'm only talking about the benefits of pulling for farming the event more efficiently, not for obtaining Orlandeau (or the others, but let's face it you're only pulling for Orlandeau). This King Mog event has some expensive items that can quickly add up, and you might find that you don't have enough time to farm everything. Here's how to determine whether or not you'll be able to get all of your rewards in 14 days:

1. Total up all of your rewards that you want to buy.
   • Let's say all of the tickets, cheap 6* mats, star quartz, gigantaurs, Durandal, Kiyomori, and the HP 15%. That's 150,700 Red Orbs

2. Calculate the amount of time (based on your bonus units) you will take to farm that many orbs.
   • Farming ELT with only a friend unit will net me a minimum of 11,500 Red Orbs a day and a maximum of 13,300. With this farming rate, it will take between 11.33 and 13.07 days to obtain all of my rewards.

3. Determine if the number of days is sufficient and, if not, either pull for an appropriate bonus or sacrifice the least efficient item.
   • Since the number of days is less than 14, I will be fine in obtaining all of my rewards without pulling for a bonus unit.
   • Had it been insufficient, I would calculate the amount of Red Orbs I was short by and determined whether I would need 1, 2, 3, or even 4 bonus units to obtain that amount over 14 days. I would also assume that the average bonus I would get from a bonus unit would be 56.25%, given the breakdown of bonuses and their respective pull rates.
   • If I chose not to pull for a bonus, I would instead analyze the efficiency of all of the items I require based on how close their value comes to the value I would obtain in an equal amount of time spent TM farming. The closer their values the less efficient the reward is. I would then sacrifice the least efficient items until my total Red Orb requirements met what I could obtain in ~14 days.

Final Thoughts

It seems this event has normal bonus spawn rates (unlike the Nimbus one). Also, the currency acquired from Elt seems a bit higher than previous events and the difficult is way down. On average, things are looking good for The Auracite Chosen.

Please let me know if I made any errors in my calculations. As always, I welcome an intellectual and spirited debate in the comments. Just please try to be nice to each other. Some of us are still sore about not pulling Orlandeau...

Thanks.