I'm posting this here because the question keeps coming up in the Event Megathread. (Not an attempt to circumvent the thread, mods.)

For those wondering if you can get to Y'shtola by farming PRO in the raid event, the answer, as indicated in the title, is Yes.

How much effort this will require depends on the community. Y'shtola's cost is 1,200,000 points in the event. Without any sort of level bonus on the raid, this would require 500 PRO runs (at 2,400 points each), which is not possible within the two weeks the event will be operating. (Two weeks using 24 orbs per day max is 336 runs.)

However, as Ifrit "levels up" the amount of points you will receive also increases. As of this writing, we are already at Level 10 ( 72%) which grants 4,128 points. It would take 291 runs at this level to get to 1,200,000. Even if we maintain the current raid level and do not increase (or decrease), you could start now, use every orb available on PRO, get 8 hours of sleep per night, and (barely) reach Y'shtola.

It's almost certain that the raid level will rise even further in the coming days. We may not hit the crazy ~25 level raid that they did in Japan, but we won't need to. Here are some breakdowns of how many runs it would take at the various levels to reach 1,200,000. (These numbers don't include any points you earn before the raid hits these levels.)

Level 12 (88% bonus):  266 runs / 4512 per  (11 days of orbs - 13 days w/8 hours sleep)

Level 15 (112% bonus): 235 runs / 5088 per  (10 days of orbs - 11 days w/8 hours sleep)

Level 18 (136% bonus): 212 runs / 5664 per  ( 9 days of orbs - 10 days w/8 hours sleep)

Level 21 (160% bonus): 192 runs / 6240 per  ( 8 days of orbs -  9 days w/8 hours sleep)

Level 25 (192% bonus): 172 runs / 7008 per  ( 7 days of orbs -  8 days w/8 hours sleep)

If the community does well enough in increasing Ifrit's level, you could miss almost half the event entirely and still make it to the 1,200,000 mark for Y'shtola. (Of course, you wouldn't want to miss all those raid coins for the FFXIV summon...)

Beyond Y'shtola - If you want the final reward from the event, a 5* trust moogle at 1,600,000 points, you will need to keep on the ball. Unless the community manages to raise Ifrit to level 15 today (3/17), you will not be able to reach the final reward unless you start the event today. Even then, it will be tight. At level 15, it would take 315 runs (just over 13 days) to reach that goal. The longer that the raid is below level 15 makes it that much harder to reach the top goal and means more runs have to be accomplished at the higher levels to have a chance at that. Good luck, everyone!

Other Difficulties - If you can't consistently beat PRO and you're wondering if you can still get Y'shtola, I'm afraid you're likely out of luck. Barring an unexpected surge in Raid Level, there probably won't be enough points available to reach 1,200,000 before the event ends. Here's a breakdown of how many points you can expect if you run only a single difficulty, based on various average levels of the raid from here (3/18) on out.

What does the average mean? We're at level 15 currently and not expected to drop, so if we progressed linearly from this point forward to, say, level 21 by the end of the event, the average level would be 18. (The 15 average means that we don't increase at all from this point forward, which seems unlikely. The 20 average means we hit level 25 by the end of the event, which is probably equally unlikely.) This chart assumes using 24 orbs per day.

                           AVERAGE AND PROJECTED MAX RAID LEVEL THROUGHOUT REMAINDER OF EVENT
                    15 [15 max]    16 [17 max]   17 [19 max]    18 [21 max]     19 [23 max]    20 [25 max]
Points for INT          549K           569K           589K           609K           628K           648K
Points for ADV         1029K          1067K          1104K          1141K          1179K          1216K
Points for PRO         1647K          1707K          1767K          1827K          1886K          1946K
Points for ELT         4804K          4979K          5154K          5328K          5503K          5678K