Hello all,

It's that time of the month again; a new event is out, new rewards are available, and a "new" currency is in place. There's even a buffed version of Cactuar Dunes out for the weekend. I'm sure there are plenty of you like myself that are wondering what to spend your time and hard-earned lapis on. While there are several resources out there to help you make your decision (megathread, wiki, currency spreadsheet and calculator, etc...), I find that most people don't want to spend an exorbitant amount of time "studying" for this game. Luckily I do. Here's my attempt at using all of the information out there to help make your decisions in the next week or two more efficient. Also, just as a reminder, this is going to be a long post.

To Dune or not to Dune

Because of the limited availability of the buffed Cactuar Dunes event (ends 3/6 at midnight PST), this should be the first issue to be addressed as you begin your weekend of FFBE.

With the recent changes to the Cactuar Dunes event, you now have a chance to obtain anywhere between 50k - 210k experience, which corresponds to 1.67 - 7 Metal Gigantaurs. Let's say the average is somewhere between 3 and 4. That means your gigantaur/energy ratio is between 0.2 - 0.267.

On the other hand, from the event you can obtain 1 gigantaur (max 100) for 100 white phantoma. But is your gigantaur/energy ratio higher or lower than dunes?

The Math:
Assumptions - You will bring a friend unit that provides on average a 75% bonus. The spawn rates for nimbus and golden bomb are 7.5% ± 2.5% and are independent of each other. You will steal from nimbus whenever he appears. You will not attempt to kill nimbus.

PRO (w/ 1 friend) - 317 ± 24 WP/10 energy
This is a gigantaur/energy ratio of 0.317 ± 0.024

ELT (w/ 1 friend) - 422 ± 24 WP/13 energy
This is a gigantaur/energy ratio of 0.325 ± 0.0185

Conclusion
Even with only a single friend unit, both PRO and ELT offer better gigantaur/energy ratios than the dunes. The average number of gigantaurs you would need to obtain per run to be more efficient than the event is 5. If you only want efficiency, do the event. If you need more than 100 gigantaurs or don't like the tedium of farming the event, do the dunes while it's available. Now on to the analysis of the rewards....

My Personal Rating System

I use a 0-3 rating system that breaks down in the following way:

3 - Equipment/character/materia with long-term utility that will maintain its top-tier status for many months or is capable of enhancements in the future that will significantly improve its potential. Ex: Noctis/Lightning/Luneth, dual-wield/dual-cast, Excalibur/Deathbringer, etc...

2 - Moderate utility that will last beyond the current event and provide plot progression and/or trial completion. Ex: highest attack/defense elemental equipment, moderately upgraded (but not top-tier) or niche characters/equipment/materia (depends on current party setup).

1 - Minimal utility that provides temporary progression, lackluster upgrades, or allows one to farm an event more efficiently. Ex: Eight, Cinque, materia/equipment for them. (A 1 ranked character may become a 0 after the event is over. They may also be a 2 during and after the event. Again it depends on your current party setup.)

0 - No utility. Easily outclassed in the future and/or already irrelevant. Ex: Megacite, recovery items, useless materia/equipment.

Energy = White Phantoma (For PRO and ELT only)

Estimated rate of a golden bomb and nimbus encounter (7.5 ± 2.5%). Average 75% bonus for friend unit (not based on % chance to pull). Average 56.25% bonus for your unit (based on % chance to pull – 10% Cinque, 10% Eight, 5% Nine, 0.5% Queen).

PRO – 18.1 ± 1.35 WP/Energy (~5,400/day)

• 1 friend unit – 31.7 ± 2.4 WP/Energy (~9,500/day)

• 1 friend unit and X bonus units – (31.7 ± 2.4) (10.2 ± 0.77)X Candy/Energy (extra ~3,000X/day)

ELT – 18.55 ± 1.84 WP/Energy (~5,600/day)

• 1 friend unit – 32.46 ± 1.77 WP/Energy (~9700/day)

• 1 friend unit and X bonus units – (32.46 ± 1.77) (10.44 ± 0.59)X WP/Energy (extra ~3100X/day)

The Analysis

Important: All costs should be compared in value to an equal amount of time spent TM farming where each TM has a value of 3 when completed (300 energy/day = 0.15 TM progress/day = 0.45 value/day).

I'm going to try something different this time and not rank the rewards. Rather I want to list the maximum amount of white phantoma that you should spend for something that is valued at a 1, 2, or 3.

For a 1 value reward
It would take 2.22 days to achieve 1 TM value from TM farming. In those 2.22 days:

• PRO w/ 1 friend - can obtain 21,133.33 ± 1,600 WP.
• ELT w/ 1 friend - can obtain 21,640 ± 1,180 WP.
• PRO w/ X bonus - can obtain an extra 12,076.2(X/100) WP.
• ELT w/ X bonus - can obtain an extra 12,365.71(X/100) WP.

Example

To determine if it is worth purchasing a reward you deem has a value of 1, calculate the amount of phantoma you can gather in 2.22 days given your farming rate bonus. If the reward costs less than this, it is efficient to buy. Let's say I want to buy the MP 15% materia, priced at 16,000 WP. This materia has a value of 1 to me. Farming ELT w/ 1 friend unit will earn me a minimum of 20,460 WP in the time I can obtain 1 TM value from TM farming. Thus the reward is a more efficient use of my energy for the value I'm obtaining. On the other hand, the ATK 15% materia is priced at 35,000 WP. This costs more than the maximum amount of WP I can obtain in 2.22 days, and so is less efficient if I value it a 1.

Conclusion

Almost all of the rewards are below 20,000 WP, so there is no need to do additional analyses. If you deem that something has a value of 1 (i.e. minimal utility/temporary progression), it is safe to buy as long as it isn't the moogles or the ATK 15% materia. The ATK 15% materia and 30k moogle are only safe to buy if they are valued at a 2 for you. The 70k moogle is only safe to buy if it is valued at a minimum of 3.

To pull or not to pull

Here comes the part where I give my opinion about something that a lot of people have already decided on. In my opinion, the characters in this banner have no value. Thus, I would only pull if you need the bonus currency to buy everything you want. Unfortunately the rewards are also very lackluster this event, and so I don't believe anyone should have trouble obtaining what they need.

Example

Let's say (this is actually what I intend to do) I want to buy all the rare summon tickets, the phantasmal blade, the vitality apparatus, all the imperial helms, the mp/atk 15% materia, all the gigantaurs, and all the cheap 6* awakening mats. This would cost me 131,300 WP. Farming ELT w/ 1 friend unit, I can obtain around 10,000 phantoma a day. This would come out to ~13 days needed to get everything I want, which is less than the maximum. Sure I can be more efficient and pull a bonus unit for an additional 50% (probably). That would cut down the time needed to farm 131,300 phantoma to about 10.5 days. Unfortunately those 2.5 days would only net me about 1 TM value in farming and likely wouldn't make up the value in lapis spent obtaining a unit (~1000 lapis in daily pulls or 4 tickets on average). Even if I pulled a Queen, that would only cut the time down to 8.5 days. In those 4.5 days I save, I can farm approximately 2 TM value. The question then becomes, is 2 TM value worth 1000 lapis. I'll let you all be the judge of that.

Final Thoughts

One interesting thing I found was that with the static amount of stolen WP from nimbus and the drop rate of the golden bomb, the efficiency difference between PRO and ELT became much smaller. Of course, this could be incorrect if the spawn rate of both of these enemies is less in PRO than ELT. Also, if you receive a bonus from a run in PRO, you are already being more efficient than if you had run the same with ELT.

Anyway, please just read the bolded sections if you want the highlights. I changed things up this time, mostly because it would've been dull to rate everything I wanted a 1, and also because I didn't want another argument about the trust moogle (I'll probably still get one though). Oh, and I didn't include any difficulties under PRO because someone who can't safely complete PRO should have other priorities besides comparing events to TM farming. If I messed up on anything or excluded something you want to see, please let me know.

Thanks.