I think France's pending Presidency of the European Commission provides an opportunity for European strategic coherence. I'd argue that the engine for that is through French/American cooperation: in fact, by being cozy with the US, France can help build Europe.

What does European strategic coherence require? I'd say three things:

1. European military capability
2. A "least common denominator" shared European foreign policy
3. A refreshed, more balanced strategic partnership with the United States

At the moment, you may find these at the level of countries, but Europe as a whole is short on all three. Its military spend is both inadequate and inefficient. Europe barely has a common foreign policy. And the partnership with the US is one of fragile dependency: one day Europe will tire of being subordinate or America will tire of footing the bill for a rich continent.

But a few stars are aligning for a change:

1. France will soon take over the EU Commission Presidency
2. France is not afraid to have a foreign policy and it does not shortchange its military
3. France has had a good relationship with the United States for 15 years
4. After the AUKUS debacle, America has taken pains to be a loyal partner to France and is eager to heal any rifts in the relationship (yes, it's true)
5. America is pivoting towards the Indo-Pacific and is eager to reallocate resources and attention there (e.g. hence biting the bullet and just pulling out of Afghanistan)
6. America has long wanted Europe to take over more of its own defense and has partly gotten over its skepticism of the EU (versus NATO) taking that role
7. America's population is war-weary and less hawkish; the gap between the two countries is far narrower than in the 2000s. France/EU are also popular in the US.
8. Europe and America are starting to see China and Russia the same way, even if they aren't aligned on what to do
9. We have an active crisis in Ukraine that requires aligned decisions; this is a mess that the US would love to have others take the lead on.

The pieces are on the board: but now how to play them?

Central and Eastern Europe's overriding concern is its own security. It does not want anything that will weaken its American security guarantee and is wary of France weakening NATO to fan its own prestige. Those countries are afraid that Germany and France are too complacent about Russia.

So what are the moves:

1. France and America propose moves to strengthen the security of Europe's eastern border for the next two decades. Poland, the Baltics, etc. must support these moves.
2. That must involve greater European presence, but America promising to retain (fewer) tripwire troops in the East. The goal is to reassure Eastern European that this is an *addition* to its security blanket versus a reduction
3. France must be in the lead, but America must be tightly aligned.
4. America must seek opportunities to bring France/EU in outside of Europe; it may mean "letting" countries like UAE take French defense contracts, or pushing for a Quad EU conference, or just staying out of the way.
5. They must agree upon a least common denominator foreign policy re Russia; e.g. commit to less energy dependency on Russia over the next few decades

The challenges:

1. Europeans (especially Germans) must spend more on defense
2. America must learn to defer to Europeans re their own backyard; the recent history of America supporting/following France in Sahel is a good example
3. France must put aside the Gaullist tendency; Germany must think of the security of its neighbors; and they must both see themselves as Europeans first
4. British/French relations must be restored; British hard power is too important
5. American politics are fragile; what if Trump comes back?

The immediate challenge is Ukraine. I do not know the right move, but it is vital that the policy of the EU and the US is aligned.

Maybe I'm crazy. As an American I think we share much in common with Europe, and I hope that this opportunity is seized. . . it may all be in the hands of Macron.

(And sorry for long essay!)