Greece-Turkey, "I'll explain Erdogan's show of force". Admiral Sanfelice of Monteforte speaks.

The military expert and professor of strategic studies: "Erdogan is losing consensus internally, putting the economy in crisis with the risk for Turkey of becoming, after Argentina, the new failed state. The S-400 missile system? It's not competitive".

Is Greece calling for an arms embargo and the suspension of the EU-Turkey customs union? There is no doubt that "in the absence of an agreement, measures of this kind will have to be taken".

This told to formiche.net, admiral Ferdinando Sanfelice of Monteforte, military expert, professor of strategic studies and author of the book "Il mondo dopo il Covid-19" [The world after Covid-19] (Mursia, 2020), written jointly with Laura Quadarella. In this conversation, the admiral "reads" the Greek-Turkish conflict, also considering the recent energy affair and the related reflections with EU policies, emphasizing the economic difficulties of Turkey which risks of becoming, after Argentina, the new failed state. "That's why Erdogan's show of force". And about the S-400 missile system bought from Russia, he says that...

​

What will change in the crisis with Greece after the victory of Erdoganian [Ersin] Tatar in Northern Cyprus presidential elections ?

Nothing. Turkey's position about Northern Cyprus is clear: Turkey has not signed the Montego Bay Convention, thus it does not consider islands should have a continental shelf or even an exclusive economic zone, and indicates the possible delimitation of a mini continental shelf in 12 miles at max. It will change only, and only, when the two sides will understand that it's convenient for them to get along.

Meanwhile, the Turkish fleet left the Dardanelles this morning, while "Oruc Reis" ship is back in Kastellorizo, causing the consequent mobilization of the Greek Navy. Are diplomatic efforts in danger of being thwarted by Ankara's position?

Of course, there's the risk of an accident. Some hotheads could fire some cannon shots and hit the target. At that point there would be a paradoxical situation, because it would no longer be Turkey against Greece but against the EU. The Lisbon Treaty is clear and Greece has already alerted Europe about this.

Greece calls for an arms embargo and the suspension of the EU-Turkey customs union: what do you think?

There is no doubt that in the absence of an agreement, measures of this kind will have to be taken. The only thing that is holding back Europe at the moment is Greece's unwillingness to find honorable compromises. As long as Athens remains intractable, the EU will find it difficult to support it.

Syria, Libya and now the Aegean: why did the EU not respond to Erdogan's strategic depth with a common foreign policy, given that Paris and Berlin are on opposite positions?

The EU is ready to do a certain number of things agreed with everyone, it is not ready to support the intransigence of a country.

How much weight will the relations being built on the Paris-Athens axis have, after Greece has reached an agreement to buy 16 French [Dassault] Rafales?

Everyone is very open-minded towards Greece, because they have a number of reasons and there are not a few. The problem is that the negotiations are based, as is well known, on a do ut des: reciprocity is the highest law of the diplomatic world, so Greece should give up something to gain something else.

At the moment, the Euro-Mediterranean region is seething with conflicts: not only Syria and Libya, but also the Armenian-Azerbaijani affair and, of course, the Aegean. What could be the Russian variable in Ankara's strategies?

Russia is slowly getting closer to Europe: so its support for the Shiite component and Turkey becomes conditional, differently of what happened a year ago. A second aspect concerns Ankara, which presents appalling internal problems. The three main components, namely fundamentalists, secularists and Kurds, who do not find a modus vivendi. So those in power try to show force, to win support and maintain control. Erdogan, however, is losing consensus internally, putting the economy in crisis with the risk for Turkey of becoming, after Argentina, the new failed state. This is the reason why of Erdogan's show of force: he needs resources, money and he has to give something as a guarantee.

Meanwhile, Turkey has failed to successfully test the S-400 missile system, because it refused to hire Russian specialists, as reported by Avia [Czech automotive manufacturer], specialized in military affairs: just a technical problem?

Seen from the outside, all missile systems are good, but internally flaws come out. We must not forget that, thank goodness, there is a technological gap between the West and Russia. So Turkey bought the S-400 but found itself with a system that does not work properly and therefore is not competitive with its Western counterpart, due to technical flaws and poor reliability. Let's remember that, during the Cold War, we saw Russian ships having troubles trying to get their poorly made systems working.

No wonder that today Turks have problems with S-400 missile system.