This post has been de-listed
It is no longer included in search results and normal feeds (front page, hot posts, subreddit posts, etc). It remains visible only via the author's post history.
I’ve been playing with 538’s Swing-o-matic tool. It’s very cool. But the default value for voters aged 30-44, ostensibly based on 2020, gives Democrats a 21 percentage point margin. That seems WAY too high based on anything else I’ve read.
When you correct that value, and also correct for the increases in Black and Latino support for Republicans (I entered Black D 70 margin and Latino D 20), it returns a pretty easy win for Trump - even when also putting in some other more favorable numbers for Democrats.
Am I missing something? Swing-o-matic predicts a Trump win, but 538’s official projection, and most other polling aggregators, are giving Harris a slight edge.
Subreddit
Post Details
- Posted
- 1 month ago
- Reddit URL
- View post on reddit.com
- External URL
- reddit.com/r/ElectionPol...