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Lira currency has risen 6.5% against the dollar since start of January as tighter monetary policy shores up sentiment.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s decisions to let his son-in-law Berat Albayrak quit as finance minister, and to install a central bank chief with the leeway to deploy more orthodox monetary policies than his predecessor, have been credited with the brightening outlook.
So the inflation is expected to slow after a peak in April, which may allow the bank to begin reducing interest rates; but it is expected to do so slowly and in line with disinflation, Erkan said. The lira’s rally may weaken when the central bank starts to sell lira to rebuild its foreign-currency reserves, which the previous governor had depleted in a fruitless attempt to halt the lira’s decline.
Yet Erdogan might like to keep the interest rate as it is as Erdogan has long railed against high inflation rates, to reduce borrowing costs. Yet the central bank cannot do all the work on its own, and investors may start paying more attention to whether there is genuine progress on economic reforms.
So my question is how has Turkey been at economic reforms in history?
If it’s not Turkey but à related situation it might be interesting as well.
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