Ok so this started as a little self learning project but I figured I might as well post the work regardless of the outcome.

Over the years I’ve personally been suspect of teams that draft a QB of the future, or have a young QB of the future but hire a new defensive-minded head coach. Just seems like a gamble on your most important pieces development.

So, I thought why not go 2-3 years back and look at a window of QBs, the coaches they were drafted into and how their careers turned out in the NFL to see if there was a trend. Then, if there was a trend, let’s use it to try and predict how current year 1 and 2 QBs in the NFL might do moving forward.

For the sake of my brain, I am going to stick to first round QBs and QBs from later rounds that showed promise or developed into starters. Yes, this ignores a vast majority of the data from rounds 2 to undrafted. Deal with it, lol.

Some guys technically still have jury out. I’ll use a TBD marker, but also note what I feel the grade would be (successful or unsuccessful) if they randomly quit football today.

The term successful will probably be heavily debated. However I am approaching this with the understanding that not all QBs are gunna end up being Mahomes, Allen, Herbert. So if they’ve shown starting abilities we’ll give it to them, even if its QB15 .

For guys that have multiple coaches I’ll use the first one there.

If I miss somebody obvious, I’ll amend.

2020

Joe Burrow – Zach Taylor (OF) - Successful
Tua Tagovailoa – Brian Flores (DF), Mike McDaniel (OF) – TBD (unsuccessful if done today)
Justin Herbert – Anthony Lynn (OF), Branden Staley (DF) - Successful
Jordan Love – Matt LaFleur (OF) – Unsuccessful (never started)
Jalen Hurts – Doug Pederson (OF), Nick Siriani (OF) – TBD (successful if done today)

2019

Kyler Murray – Cliff Kingsbury (OF) – Successful
Daniel Jones – Pat Shurbur (OF), Joe Judge (OF), Brian Daboll (OF) – Unsuccessful
Dwayne Haskins – Jay Gruden (OF), Ron Rivera (DF) – Unsuccessful

2018

Baker Mayfield – Hue Jackson (OF), Kevin Sefanski (OF) – Successful
Sam Darnold – Todd Bowles (DF), Adam Gase (OF) – Unsuccessful
Josh Allen – Sean McDermott (DF) – Successful
Josh Rosen – Steve Wilks (DF) – Unsuccessful
Lamar Jackson – John Harbaugh (DF) – Successful

2017

Mitchel Trubisky – John Fox (DF), Matt Nagy (OF) – Unsuccessful (this is debatable. If he holds pickett off or gets another job I’d swing it.
Patrick Mahomes – Any Reid (OF) – Successful
Deshaun Watson – Bill O’Brien (OF) – Successful

Breakdowns

Successful: Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahome’s, Deshaun Watson

OF: 6
DF: 3

Unsuccessful: Jordan Love, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Mitchel Trubisky

OF: 3
DF: 3

TBD: Tua & Hurts

Conclusion/TLDR:

In short, it appears there are simply way more OF head coaches in the NFL that DF which certainly makes the data unclear. It doesn’t appear like there is an easy way to apply this data to newest crop of QBs.

If Hurts gets a boost from the added weapons and Tua performs well under the new HC it might be a nod for this theory. However, there’s no way to parse out the OF minded coache’s impact and the impact of adding OF talent to the roster like they did.

Anecdotally, the most buzz this year appears to be for Lawrence (OF), Mills (OF), Jones (DF) and Wilson (DF). Here, Wilson scares me the most but also got a ton of talent influx on the offensive side of the ball.

Although I like his rushing upside Field’s seems like a big gamble.

Some of the QBs with DF HC’s actually had stud OC’s, which could impact things:
- Josh Allen – Brian Daboll
- Mac Jones- Josh McDaniels

Anyways, today we didn’t learn much, but I had fun doing it.