So recently as I was pondering the million and one times Stannis was one move away from winning the Iron Throne, I went back to one of Stannis' most loyal yet overlooked of supporters, the honourable Eddard Stark, Lord of Winterfell. Now in the first book many advise Joffery to give Ned the black and send him to the wall for the rest of his days, effectively stripping him of his lands and titles and quelling his opposition, but as a last minute decision he ends up executing Ned Stark. Many people call this decision stupid as it makes a fervent enemy of the North, but I think this potentially may have been the right decision on Joffery's part, and here's where my theory begins, I will be dividing it into a few phases because there is a lot to think about here:

PHASE 1: Let's say Joffery sent Ned to the wall to strip him of his lands and titles and Ned gets sent to the wall, the way this may benefit Stannis is that he was already out of King's Landing, at Dragonstone, and building up his forces in anticipation of the upcoming and inevitable outbreak of the war. Stannis would obviously see value in Ned, just as he saw value in Jon Snow and Mance Rayder, having control of Ned is having control of the North. On top of this, hearing that Ned was an ardent supporter of his claim would clearly make him an invaluable asset for Stannis. What I think could very well happen is Stannis could intercept Ned as he's being transported and send him to the North so they can rally behind Stannis in the upcoming war, Baratheons with the assistance of the Starks fighting against the corrupt crown once more, if this were to happen Stannis would have victory in his back pocket, except for the one factor of Renly but I'll return to this point in a later phase. For now, let's be a bit lenient and say that Stannis is unable to intercept Eddard while he's being sent, and Eddard has already been sent to the wall. Deep down, Eddard still recognises Stannis as the king, by right, and if Stannis comes to the wall, pardons Ned for his crimes and reinstates him as Lord of Winterfell, like he offered to Jon (probably undisputed by the other lords with their unyielding fealty to the Starks), now most of you are probably thinking, "Wait, Jon Snow refused this offer from Stannis under the grounds that he belongs to the Night's Watch and swore oaths declaring as such, sticking up for his oaths sounds like something Ned would definitely do and he'd probably refuse this offer as well, on top of this in the North the Nights Watch isn't a punishment but more of a noble duty and seeing how Ned definitely sees it as such he'd willingly stay", and to that I say maybe, however I do feel as though Ned may have some grounds to accept this offer as well. Ned has done things solely because Robert commanded them before and clearly valued the word of a King, however he has also refused commands from Robert, despite him being king such as concerning hunting down Daenarys. and considering Stannis is king in this scenario he may recognise the pardon as legitimate, potentially fueled by his hatred for the Lannister incest spawn and a drive to make things right again for the sake of not just his dying friend Robert, but for the sake of the Seven Kingdoms, he may also accept. Wether Sansa being held in King's landing may motivate him to free her or motivate him to stay in the wall for her safety is up to interpretation as well, Ned seems like the type to do both, he did the former with Lyanna during Robert's Rebellion and then the latter before his execution by making a false confession for Sansa's safety. Also let us not forget that the same Jon snow that refused Stannis' offer was one who had attachments to the Night's Watch and their clause, seen and infiltrated the free folk and was Lord Commander, Eddard is fresh from King's Landing and has none of these ties whilst still having a family and children in Winterfell and unfinished business in King's Landing. On top of this Jon Snow, in the same position, but all the way back when he heard Ned was imprisoned, said that he contemplated trying to leave to free his sisters and father but was talked out of it. It is not completely unreasonable to Ned to trust Stannis' word as king and become Lord of Winterfell (again a claim that would in all likelihood have little to no dispute, since the North is much more loyal to their own than the crown, especially the Starks) to help fight and overthrow Joffery's unrightful rule. This is where phase one ends, and the question for this phase is: Do you think the honourbound Ned Stark will back Stannis in the war or will his Oaths, Honour and fear for Sansa keep him at bay?

PHASE 2: For the sake of discussion, let's assume he accepts Stannis' offer and rallies the north behind Stannis, Baratheons and Starks overthrowing the unrightful King once more, however there is a little problem, being the little brother, Renly, and little brother Renly has a not so little army. In fact, at this point in time Renly has the largest army in the whole WOTFK, In the books numbering 80,000-100,000 strong and even if the huge manpower of the North were to join, this would still not amount to even one third of Renly's forces. When Eddard died Robb managed to Gather 12,000 men at Winterfell and later on during his march he manages to muster 20,000. There is no doubt Eddard whom has more stably run the North for decades would have an easier time rallying northern support than his inexperienced son, and would probably assemble the 20,000 soldiers more quickly, without having to spread the word like Robb did when he had to announce he was King of the North. However I would wonder how Ned's breaking of the oaths to the wall would go by the other northern lords, however Im sure that their hatred for the Lannisters and loyalty to their own would most likely be put in the forefront. Now onto Stannis' troops, at this point pre parley, Stannis has around a measly 5,000 troops and is hopelessly outnumbered by Renly nearly 20 to 1, If the Starks and Baratheons of Dragonstone join together they would amass 25,000, however with Eddard backing Stannis I'm sure less Baratheons would back Renly over Stannis considering Ned was named Protector of the Realm by Robert, but without too much theorising and head canon lets just assume the numbers stay the same and its 25,000 to Renly's mostly Tyrell host of 80,000-100,000. Stannis is still hopelessly outnumbered and will be forced to resort to Melisandre in order to resolve this in a complete and utter victory as he did in the books. Now Davos and Ned think very similarly in my opinion, when they speak of Stannis they often talk about how he is an honourable man and a commander, and Davos reacted very negatively to Stannis killing Renly with blood magic like Melisandre did but managed to get over it because Stavos is too strong. The Question that Im begging here is how would Eddard react to Stannis using Melisandre's blood magic. Stannis actively participates in burning figures of the Old Gods and spreading the religion of R'hllor, this will most definitely not go unnoticed by Eddard and would likely outrage him at the prospect of the religion of his forefathers and of the North as a whole being tainted by some foreign priest, as a matter of fact I do think this is a main reason as to why Robb never ended up allying with Stannis. Also using the blood magic to kill his brother Renly would likely not go well with Ned. This brings me to the phase two question: How do you think Eddard will react to Renly's probable death by Blood Magic and Melisandre in general? Will this get in the way of Stannis and Ned's alliance? Will Ned value his duty to put the rightful king on the throne first and foremost, or will his honour get in the way as it did with agreeing to kill Daenarys and force Ned to forsake Stannis? How will his nightfires (which following Renly's death at the hands of Melisandre, Stannis will certainly not stop) go when Ned has to discuss the alliance with the other Northern Lords? Will the progress of the War be the prerogative or will these issues be too big to leave to later for the North? Although I'm painting a grim picture here keep in mind that Stannis is doing a pretty good job at rallying the Northern lords currently in the novel, however this could be attributed to their hatred for the Lannisters and discontent under the Boltons more than supporting Stannis' claim.

PHASE 3: Stannis is set, the war of the four kings (that's actually a more catchy name, probably more fitting too since Balon barley did anything during the war) is now down to just Stannis and Joffery, Now onto the infamous Battle of Blackwater Bay. During this battle, Stannis had a force numbering 21,000 during the Battle, this along with the Northern forces would create a force of 46,000 soldiers strong, to the measly 7,000-8,000 city Garrison of King's Landing, most of which are unmotivated during the original battle, probably even less motivated now. Now it is important to note that before the battle Davos warns many of the lords of holes in their tactics but is ignored on the basis of them outnumbering the city garrison, with Ned Stark having an experienced say, he may even alter the faulty tactics of the Battle and help employ less vulnerable formations, maybe it could be a two sided assault which the city couldn't hope to defend against. This alone could be enough to win the battle in my opinion, however it is important to note that the Lannisters are not preoccupied with Robb Stark's battles since the North is directly behind Stannis. Stannis could attempt to just ditch Blackwater as sieging King's Landing through the Riverlands has now become a viable option with them probably following suit in allying themselves behind the North and Stannis (unfortunately I sorta forgot about them making this and I have't gone back and added them along the theory as their numbers during the WOTFK were never specified, Renly believed that during the WOTFK there were 20,000 that joined Robb, which would comprise 40,000 (which with Stannis' forces would number 60,000 what a sight) but this was disproved by Catelyn Tully herself when she said the number was severely exaggerated as many men went back to tend their harvests, as such there's no solid number that can be given other than much less than 20,000 and anything would simply be spitballing but I decided lowballing by excluding them entirely could help drive the point home) to be honest this is where phase three and my theory ends as its all up to interpretation at this point: Do you guys think the Vale would decide to back and join Stannis or would Lysa continue to stay out of it? Would Little Finger even want to back Stannis, they aern't exactly on the best of terms in terms of what they've been saying of eachother? Would the Tullys inclusion make a difference? If Stannis were to somehow make it to King's Landing would he be able to overtake it quickly enough before reinforcements arrive? If this was drawn out enough would Joffery's eventual death and Stannis' pressure eventually convert the kingdom behind him over the boy king Tommen?

To Conclude, what do you guys think is the plausibility of these events if that one simple decision to not kill Eddard was made? To be honest writing this was quite fun, it was like exploring a completely different story that unfolded, it really does show the complexity and nuance of GRRM's work, anyways let me know your responses to each phase in the comments, looking forward to reading what you guys have to say, Win or Lose, he's still the rightful king the realms need, and nothing can change that.