The chances of this being correct are highly unlikely but here's what I'm thinking:
MacLeish/a group working with him is setting him up to be president. He turned down the offer for Speaker of the House because he knew Kirkman would offer him vice president. At some point he (probably not him personally, but someone involved in the conspiracy) makes an attempt to kill Kirkman so MacLeish would become president. The attempt fails and Kirkman discovers that MacLeish was involved; MacLeish gets charged with treason/dies somehow and public confidence in Kirkman seriously drops (I mean, the man's own vice president tried to kill him).
Perhaps going deeper into this theory, Kirkman is coming up on his reelection (running against Hookstraten) and this seriously weakens his campaign. He still wins a second term, however.
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