Some resources I've found for this and future weather events:

Storm prediction center

SPC day 1-4 severe outlook

SPC day 1 thunderstorm outlook

DFW SkyWarn updates

HRRR hourly weather models

NWS DFW office twitter

NWS DFW skywarn twitter

national severe thunderstorm warnings

national tornado warings

storm prediction center twitter

watch vs warning

Looking at the day one outlook there will be 2 rounds of storms today. One will be from a surface boundary moving south from Oklahoma over the morning hours. This first round will favor hail as the primary threat.

Once this round has moved off a 2nd round is expected from a dryline over northwest Texas. Over the afternoon hours this dryline will push east. The storm mode should change from discrete cells to more of a line with this motion. There is some uncertainty over where a triple point will fall in the afternoon possibly pushing this second round of storms farther north then currently predicted. The discrete cells in the west will favor significant hail. With the eastward movement there will be an increase in the tornado risk. The risk of damaging wind is present will all storm modes today but will become more widespread with the line of storms.

We should have more information with today's SkyWarn briefing at 10AM today.

Work permitting I will try to keep this post updated with links to current information. And please keep in mind that I am not a meteorologist, I am just a weather enthusiast trying to interpret the national weather service's information.

9:00 AM

New day 1 outlook. Basically It says it's going to be a complex day. Scattered to numerous storms possibly in multiple rounds. Timing, location and growth remain uncertain. large to significant hail is possible especially with the discrete cells. Damaging wind may be the most common report. While conditions aren't as good as yesterday for tornado's the risk still exists. The lack of a strong cap over northwest/north-central Texas suggests somewhat early initiation (as soon as midday). The evolution into a damaging thunderstorm complex seems probable this afternoon into early evening shifting into the rest of north Texas.

Risks for Dallas :

Enhanced

Tornado: 5%

Wind: 30%

Hail: 30%

Thunderstorm outlook for Dallas (times in UTC):

1600 - 2000: 10%

2000 - 0000: 10% ( on edge of 40%)

0000 - 0400: 70%

9:30 am

best guess at timings from the NWS

9:45 am

As expected the NWS WILL NOT be conducting the weekly weather radio test.

11 am

No new info from the NWS. Still waiting on the SkyWarn update that was supposed to come by 10 am.

11:30 am

new thunderstom outlook for Dallas (times in UTC):

2000 - 0000: 70%

0000 - 0400: 70%

0400 - 1200: 40%

new day one outlook:

enhanced risk

tornado: 5%

hail: 30%

wind: 30%

There is a convergence of an outflow bounder just south of the red river across northeast TX and a weak cold front over south-central OK. This combined with the already very moist air and strong day time heating will yield a high instability and a weak cap. A weak perturbation is tracking across north Mexico and will move into central TX this evening. This will enhance large scale lift and support the development of intense tstorms. Initial development is expected along the boundaries. These initial storms are expected to be supercells capable of very large hail. Given weak low level shear the main tornado threat will be near these boundaries or if a storm can take full advantage of the strong up draft. The storms are expected to increase in coverage through the evening. Evolution into bow lines is expected bringing a risk od damaging winds and hail.

3 PM

It's been quiet out there. The skywarn update came out about 1:30, It said the same things the day one outlook did. Some weather is coming, hail, wind maybe some tornadoes. There is some uncertainty with when and where the storm mode will change. The 1800Z HRRR model run showed no storms however the 1700Z run and the parts of the 1900Z run we can see both support storm development.

3:30

according to the NWS fort worth the main threat currently is hail/damaging wind in Young, Jack, and Montague Counties.

4:45 pm

And were off. mesoscale discussion #495 has just been issued for most of DFW. A new watch box may be needed east of the current box. This new box will cover into Dallas county.

Discussion: slow moving complex currently over northwest TX and south-central OK continues to evolve. This complex will continue eastward through the evening given the current instability. modest wind shear with high instability is favoring supercells. Although most rotation has been broad there is still a small risk for tornadoes. There will be an increasing threat for damaging winds as the outflow production increases and the storms form a bow. Hail and heavy rain remain threats

current timing

5:30

severe thunderstorm watch till 1am CDT

8:33 pm

severe thunderstorm warning till 9:30

9:45

Well... That was less exciting than expected. I'm going to go ahead and call it for the night. I don't think there will be any more out of this storm. Plus the storm is quickly moving south of Dallas.