Need help with festival of sun and great of st andral combo tomorrow

Tldr: Next session tomorrow is the festival of the sun in vallaki and subsequent feast of st andrals. I want additional idea on improvements or adjustments that worked or didn't. Also who should die in town?

For those that read this all a big thank you in advance. If you want to skip the background info and go straight to the ask scroll till you see the line of dashes

So for Back ground we have 4 PC, a cleric paladin barbarian and sorcerer lvl 4 and am mostly using the lunch break heros mods. Also Considering bumping them to 5 at the start of the season, but I just gave them lvl 4 as they found the holy symbol 2 in game days/3 sessions ago at the tower

I couldn't decide on doing the LBH mod on replacing Irena with a pc so I have myself time to think on it. Therfore connonicaly 1 player and Irena look almost identical except that the pc is a asimar. (Yes my wife who so wants to get with "daddy strahd" as she calls him. She also tried to go on a date with izek at one point)

last session ended with Victor vallakovich "disintegrating" infront of them after using the circle after dad caught him using magic and they came in and found him beating Victor.

They haven't fought a vampire yet as they straight up refused to go in the basement and left doru in it then locked him and his dad in the church, left and haven't come back.

They have done the tower, found the holy symbol and successfully fought off the werewolves (pack leader barely escaped) this is however where my wife was infected and then cut her own arm off to prevent turning (her thought completely. She figured since esmerelda did it why not her). She also ordered a new arm from blinski that will be ready the day after the feast so she's currently missing her left arm.

PCs have recruited emeralds who is with them. They know who Van Rickten is.

I used the lunch break heros mod so I moved the festival to 7 days from arrival to give time to do things and move around. Before all hell broke loose.

I also made it 1.5 days between each town by foot at normal pace so when they travel they either do it quickly or have to camp out overnight 1 time.

They have been asked to assist by lady wachter but did not agree they want her to "prove" she means well first. They met Vassili von holts who is the "only other noble" in town beside the burgomaster and wachters.

They haven't completed the bones of st Antal quest as I used the lunch break heros version and they just kinda let it go after getting to the orphanage and miljov being unconscious. The paladin did detect whatever and did see that there was fiend energy emanating from miljov, and i also talked about all the bruises and such on the children who they questioned and they told them about the shadow that hurt them at night but they got side tracked with the izek encounter at the stockade (who when he tried to take Irena they cast calm emotions on and then suggested he protect her with them and now connonicaly he has been derelict in his duties to the burgomaster who is looking for him)

For the festival im thinking of having Vargas find and bring izek (see above paragraph) or the other guy/ people vargas just imprisoned and basically burn him alive (or atleast attempt to) in the wicker ball.

Here's where I'm undecided.

Do I use the whole rain bit and make it not work? Or do I let him go through with it (baring pc intervention).

Then either when he can't light the ball or after the pcs intervene/ as they speak up before combat starts? throw in screams from the back as the vampire start attacking the whole city while strahd goes to the church to kill the bishop and/ or steal Irena? Or do I make it strahd wife who's pissed at Irena and tries to kill her? If its strahd and he goes for Irena should I have him kill izek who's guarding her?

Our do i instead not do the feast and vampires but instead do tiger tiger? If so what do I do with that?

Again thank you for reading at all.