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We're seeing a lot of discussion right now about June 21st and whether it'll be pushed back or not. I don't think it needs to be- frankly, the small rise in cases we've got is still a better outcome than even SAGE's most optimistic scenario- but for a more cautious approach why not do Phase 4 in two part that gets the best of both worlds-
Phase 4A - June 21st - Night clubs, sporting events, concerts restart as normal. Only a tiny proportion of the population will attend these events and trial runs haven't exactly shown them to be a massive risk.
Phase 4B - July 5th - All other legal controls lifted, including capacity limits in pubs etc.
Granted, it seems a bit odd to have nightclubs open whilst pubs still have capacity limits enforced. But less of the population use nightclubs than pubs, and doing it this way will minimise the economic impact whilst perhaps avoiding a small exit wave of hospitalisations.
There is no way we're ever going to see a repeat of January with so many of the vulnerable vaccinated, I'm not entirely sure why scientists and the media are panicking. A certain amount of Covid cases and sadly deaths are inevitable unless we want to keep everyone inside forever. It's an endemic respiratory virus now not a pandemic emergency, it's time we start treating it that way.
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