I originally posted this on the 2021 mega thread, but that's a few days old now and I doubt people are still going back to check it. After a lot of research, and some interesting discussions with my dad I'm actually quite optimistic that not only will we deal with this quite quickly, but also that there will be a long-lasting positive impact on society as a whole, with people turning away from social media and recognising how valuable in-person socialisation is to good mental health. Perhaps we will become a less selfish and more community orientated society, and I think the hospitality industry couldn't have wished for a better pick-me-up (!). So without further ado, here's my summary:

January - Pretty awful, but not as bad as some here are making out. Average 600-700 deaths per day, maybe dropping slightly towards the end of the month as Tier 4 starts to make an impact. I don't think we'll ever see over a thousand dying a day ever again, and I doubt there'll be a second national lockdown. Maybe nationwide Tier 3, but not nationwide Tier 4. Vaccinations exceeding one million per week by the end of the month.

February - Vaccinations peak in February at almost two million per week. The impact of this becomes clear as hospitalizations and deaths begin to decline quickly, averaging 500-600 deaths per day at the start of the month but dropping to about 100-300 by the end. Tier 4 will be gradually phased out, leaving most places in Tier 3, 2 or 1. Much of the north will be in Tier 1 or 2 by the end of the month.

March - Vaccinations still ongoing, new deliveries will mean that the general population (under 65s) will begin receiving their jabs. Hospitalizations and deaths will continue their fall, averaging about 100 deaths per day by the middle of the month and dropping to <80 by the end. Discussions will begin about ending all domestic restrictions for good, and a "liberation day" will be set, probably in late April or early May. The tier system will be phased out, with Tier 1-style restrictions nationwide.

April - Vaccinations continue apace. By this time, approx. 30 million people will have received their jabs, almost half of the population. Testing begins phasing out and case numbers are no longer recorded. Deaths have dropped to <30 per day. Excitement builds for "Covid liberation day", cautiously set for the 1st May.

May - All domestic restrictions end, prompting wild scenes across towns and cities as people pack in to bars and nightclubs. Spontaneous street parties and parades pop up, and there is a real sense of joy throughout the nation. I could genuinely see some kind of Live Aid-type event being held to celebrate and perhaps to raise money for the NHS. Meanwhile an enquiry will be announced looking in to the government's handling of Covid. Daily deaths no longer recorded, but in single figures by the end of the month.

June-July-August-September - More or less totally normal, with most big events going ahead, although some will no doubt have been cancelled because of difficulty getting insurance and general uncertainty. By September, unrestricted travel will be available to the entirety of the Western world, including Australia and NZ. At some point in July, Britain's first day without any Covid deaths will be recorded.

October-November-December - General public anxiety about a third winter wave will rise. However, by this time, almost 50 million people will have recieved their vaccinations. There will be a small uptick of hospitalizations and perhaps a few deaths over the winter, but any government intervention is simply guidance (hand washing, optional masks, etc.). Totally normal Christmas.

2022 and beyond: Covid will have disappeared from news headlines almost entirely by the end of 2021, and in 2022 it will begin to fade from the public consciousness. International travel will be possible everywhere in 2022 without noticable restriction.

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This might sound optimistic, but it's actually a little bit slower than the official government timetable, given that they're now talking about lifting restrictions by the end of February whereas I don't think we'll see full normality until May, perhaps late April at the earliest. I would LOVE the more optimistic prediction to be true, though. I definitely don't think they'll extend furlough again so I think things will have to change at the end of April by default, even in a worst-case scenario where the new variant means we don't achieve full normality until late summer.