It's no secret the Avs have struggled against the Central division this year. 10-10-2 is not exactly the record you want to have against your division if you want to succeed.

The Jets are currently 11 points ahead of the Golden Knights. So the odds of them or anyone else in the Pacific finishing with more points are slim to none. So the 1st Wild Card is probably going to be playing in the Pacific playoff bracket. The Avs are 12-5 against the Pacific this season, which is a much better record than against the Central. True, the Knights and the Oilers have more playoff experience in the past few years than the Jets, Stars, or the Wild, but that also means they could be more tired. Mark Stone excepted due to salary cap shenanigans.

The Avs do have an outside shot at finishing 2nd in the division, but it is far from likely. Since the odds are they won't have home ice in the 1st round anyway, why not tank just a bit to have an easier playoff schedule? The Central has been a slog, and a grueling division all year. (looking at you, 3 tendies in the 4 Nations final) A 1st round matchup against Jake Oettinger and Mikko, plus a potential 2nd round matchup against Hellebuyck seems less appealing than a 1st round matchup against Adin Hill and Jack Eichel, along with a potential 2nd round matchup against Connor McJesus, Leon Draisaitl, and Stuart Skinner. Who they already proved they can beat in the playoffs.

TLDR: The Avs can beat anyone in the playoffs, but the Pacific seems like an easier matchup