1949

Political Considerations

The greatest lesson learned by the Ethiopians in the 1948 campaign year was the importance of heavy equipment. When buying equipment for his rapidly expanding army, Haile Selassie had focused much of his time and effort equipping them with the latest and greatest in small arms, only to find out that Thompsons, Garands, and mortars don’t matter much in the face of an artillery shell. Haile Selassie spent the latter half of 1948 and much of 1949 searching for anyone who could sell his army heavy equipment to beat back the Italians, but to no avail. Matters were further complicated when the French announced that they would no longer be allowing arms to pass to Ethiopia through Djibouti City, meaning that even if Ethiopia could find someone to sell them equipment, there was no way for them to receive it. With no better options available to them, the Ethiopian Army dug in for defensive operations in what little Eritrean territory it still held and hoped that the political situation would develop to their advantage.

Western Front - Barentu

Barentu was the largest Eritrean town that remained under the control of the Unionists/Ethiopians at the end of 1948. Populated by the Kunama people--perhaps the strongest supporters of the Unionist movement per capita owing to their poor relationship with Eritrean military leader Hamid Idris Awate--the town was an important political symbol for the Ethiopian forces. It was equally important for the Eritreans: capturing Barentu would mean the collapse of the Ethiopian western front and bring the war one step closer to ending.

Two regiments of the Eritrean Rifles, supplemented by the remnants of battle-weary Eritrean militias, descended on the area from the west (from Teseney) and the north (from Akordat). They were opposed by the broken remnants of three Ethiopian infantry regiments (which had been hastily reformed into one roughly half-strength regiment) and two freshly arrived infantry regiments.

Once again, the British artillery operated by the Eritreans proved enough to carry the day. Eritrean casualties were light, while the Ethiopians were routed once again, beating a hasty retreat back across the border.

Eastern Front - Around Sadik’a

Sadik’a was one of the final settlements of note before arriving at the border into Ethiopia proper. However, it was small, and not worth fighting a pitched battle over. Instead, the Ethiopian forces looked to use the hilly terrain and the friendly population to launch a series of hit-and-run attacks against the overstretched supply lines of the Italian forces with the goal of forcing them to retreat back towards Asmara and buying some breathing room.

Despite some initial successes, this strategy proved ultimately unsuccessful. Superior Italian reconnaissance, supported by Eritrean militias acting as rear-area security, allowed the Italians and Eritreans to quickly adapt to this change in strategy, locating and eliminating the Ethiopian forward encampments and forcing them across the border. The Ethiopian defeat here left the road south to Adwa (the site of the climactic battle between Italy and Ethiopia some half a century ago) undefended, but the Italians chose not to go across the border.

Eastern Front - Around Senafe

Like Sadik’a to the west, Senafe was one of the last built-up areas prior to arriving in Ethiopia proper. Hoping to maintain some sort of a foothold in Eritrea from which they could threaten the vast coastal plain, the Ethiopians dug in deep around the hilly terrain alongside reinforcements from the homefront. Their efforts were more successful here than in other areas of the front--the Italians brought less force to bear here than they did elsewhere--but “more successful” was not quite enough. A concerted Italian and Eritrean offensive drove out this last bastion of Ethiopian control in Eritrea.

The Air War

While Italian forces were under strict orders not to launch attacks into Ethiopia proper (orders that were not followed by their Eritrean counterparts), they were authorized to launch airstrikes and reconnaissance flights deep into Ethiopian territory. Here they encountered their first major stumbling block. Their flights--far from the air bases of Massawa and Asmara--encountered the remnants of the Ethiopian Air Force, which had been held in reserve after the disastrous events at Massawa at the beginning of the war. Supplemented by a few batteries of AAA scattered throughout the mountains in the country’s north, the Ethiopians were able to inflict a decent amount of casualties on the Italian forces. The Italians, though, gave as good as they got, and with more planes in theater, eventually rendered the remaining Ethiopian Air Force combat inoperable.

May 1949 - Eritrean Independence and the Ceasefire

By May of 1949, the Ethiopian presence in Eritrea had been eliminated. Italian and Eritrean forces controlled the whole of the country. For the Eritreans, this decisive victory was all the proof that they needed that they were deserving of their independence. On 15 May 1949, the Independence Bloc formally declared independence as the State of Eritrea, with Independence Bloc President Ibrahim Sultan Ali serving as Provisional President during the drafting of a constitution for the new state.

By comparison, the mood in Ethiopia was miserable. While Haile Selassie and the Ethiopian government wanted to continue the war, the reality was that they couldn’t. Somewhere between a third and half of the Ethiopian Army had been rendered combat ineffective by the fighting in Eritrea. The protests of the field commanders, already vocally threatening mutiny at the end of last year’s campaign, were now too loud to ignore. Haile Selassie quickly came to realize that launching another offensive would be political suicide. With no avenues to acquire heavy equipment due to the French refusal to allow shipments through Djibouti City, and with the army hardly able to defend Ethiopia--let alone keep order in the south and in the Ogaden--Haile Selassie was left with no good options.

So he picked the least bad option. On 23 May 1949, the Ethiopian Empire and the State of Eritrea signed a ceasefire agreement in which the Eritreans would pull back to the Eritrean-Ethiopian border as it existed prior to the Four Powers Agreement.

Where Things Stand

Although the ceasefire agreement brought the hostilities of the Eritrean Liberation War (as it is known in Eritrean circles) to an end, it is not a lasting peace agreement between the two factions. Ethiopia still formally claims Eritrea as a federal component of the Ethiopian Empire. The ongoing state of hostilities also means that there has been no exchange of POWs between the two factions. Several thousand Ethiopian soldiers remain in Eritrean custody in camps near Asmara and Massawa, while a half dozen Italian pilots remain in captivity in Addis Ababa. A lasting peace agreement will at least require both of these issues to be resolved.