Arran's Economic Forecast for the Civcraft World

Iron prices face an increase in the current index (.0833) as demand for XP remains high (currently selling at 4d/EB). Iron could reach .1000 but eventually more producers will enter the market and demand falls slightly (see below) stabilizing price at very close to .09. Available iron in the ground is not expected to reach depletion levels that could push the price higher than .1000 until well after the end of the year, but price may reach these levels in a post-shard world (predicted for spring 2016) as an increase in number of players increases demand and the ore supply faces more rapid depletion.

XP prices will decrease prior to the end of the year generally as commodity prices fall. Expect sharp declines in any persistent non-labor intensive commodities, for instance cocoa, sugarcane, cactus, pumpkins, melons, carrots, and potatoes, while their increased supply in the market will lead to higher prices for labor-intensive crops like vines and grass. The wheat price will be determined by whether the trend toward decreasing bot usage continues. With high consistently high TPS, the utility of bots increases and the motivation to kick bots by the administration team decreases, which will lead to an overall lower price for wheat. Bot usage generally props up supply for some goods like wood to incredibly low prices. Overall, expect a decrease in XP prices to between 3 and 3.25d/EB by the end of the year unless the server population significantly increases in the next two months. A lower price in XP will decrease stockpiling as existing supplies are devalued, causing a mild decrease in demand for iron which will cause a slight rebound effect to a lower stabilized iron price as predicted above.

Durable goods prices depends heavily on XP prices, but may remain somewhat higher (calculated based on 4d/EB) as producers continue to recoup capital investment. It remains very expensive to enter the market in durable goods, so expect the producer count to remain low, allowing upward pressure on prices unsupported by XP price. Eventually prices will decrease as supply increases, pushed downward from producers who also produce their own commodities at industrial levels and wish to accelerate sales. While population will increase demand dramatically in the spring quarter, the labor market will increase while the money supply will lag significantly behind, keeping prices at approximately current levels. Spring and summer quarter pricing will depend heavily on how shardfriends incorporate into existing social and economic structures. An increase in economic disparity between classes will likely develop, preventing dramatic inflation.

Redstone will continue to surge in price as additional compactors come online, and redstone is used in creation and repair. There appears to be an unfilled niche in the current marketplace for sales of pistons from an advanced redstone mechanism factory. This will likely remain unfilled until redstone increases dramatically in price and pistons for compactor manufacture and repair increase, since no savings in iron exist, making the margin for sales redstone dependent, and the sales volume necessary to balance upkeep costs very, very high. It is possible that a factory owner who's self-fulfilling large orders for noteblocks, jukeboxes, etc, may enter the piston market providing cost savings to those willing to buy in bulk significantly decreasing redstone.

Lapis lazuli price is expected to remain stable until the major iron sources are depleted (summer 2016), when increased mining activity may result in greater supply.

Endstone, quartz ore, and glowstone are tied together to the creation of nether factories, and will increase with saturation and increased nether factory cost. Expect endstone to outpace the others considerably as supply falls much shorter than demand. Expect illegal harvesting of endstone, if not all three, and entry into the marketplace of new producers to have a stabilizing effect as prices dramatically increase. Shardfriends could potentially enter the endstone market mining the nether en masse. Expect eventual super-saturation of nether factories to result in a somewhat rapid collapse as early as the end of the current year. It's very difficult to determine what price may be the proper selling point for endstone because it faces the super-saturation cliff of sharply declining demand as under-served areas give up attempts at nether factory creation and exit the market. Any change in administration policy on exclusion radius will radically affect the market. While significant pressure exists to decrease exclusion radius, ttk2 seems firm in his resolve to punish regions caught in what now amount to flyover zones.

Cost of high-end decorative blocks will remain stable, but as additional compactors enter the marketplace expect increased availability in remote regions to decrease prices in those regions. Lower end building blocks will still depend on local production, but may decrease mildly as compactors make large-scale cobblestone recovery from mines feasible.

The foregoing is free information provided as a public service by Arran, a philanthropic welfare nation. Do with it what you will.