(I apologize for the title; it is a shameless plug for the new Aytos paper currency, the "Aytos .05D diamond demand note").

For starters, I'd like to agree with dsclouse's observation that both sides have been escalating this conflict. Rather than belaboring that point further though, I'd like to bring attention to the fact that by doing this both sides are severely hurting their own strategic interests, not to mention the interests of the quadrant in general.

Orion's interests versus its actions

Orion gets no taxes or resources from Senntisten. There are only two things there that have any value: the territory has military value as a buffer territory, and the people have value as either neutral guardians of that buffer territory, or even better, as allies and partners of the people of Orion proper. Therefore Orion's chief strategic goal should be to procure the goodwill and cooperation of that population. Creating an enemy in that buffer territory is Orion's worst possible outcome, and yet that is where their blundering policies have led and are continuing to lead.

Yes, Orion is obligated by treaty to place snitches in Senntisten. But wouldn't it have been courteous to coordinate with the inhabitants on making that happen (or at least attempt to do so, on the record)? Yes, someone hit Baragoin; maybe they even combat-tagged him (at least someone says he hit a Senntistan also). Are people ordinarily pearled due to mere assault that does not result in meaningful damages? Yes, there may be evidence that Battleborn_Sarin griefed a farm ten days ago. But doesn't the timing suggest that the arrest is actually politically motivated, or is that just an inexplicable bizarre coincidence? In each of these cases Orion, although technically remaining within legal boundaries, has chosen a heavy-handed approach. If the colonial charter agreement was negotiated in good faith, Orion has formally acknowledged that Senntisten should be enforcing its own laws in its own territory; and yet these actions, even if within the letter of the present law, are opposed to the spirit of that agreement. These actions appear to serve no purpose other than to punish people for percieved slights, some of which are merely verbal.

Senntisten's interests versus its actions

Senntisten has no legitimate interest in anything other than the freedom to run their domestic affairs, most notably their domestic law enforcement and trial systems. An agreement (the colonial charter) has been negotiated with Orion which satisfies all these concerns, however due to legal complications with the Orion Constitution this has not yet been implemented. In short, Senntisten has achieved all their goals with respect to Orion and at this point it is merely waiting for the paperwork to get finalized. If Orion drags their feet on implementing the agreements that were negotiated, that's only going to delay the inevitable, since within a month Orion voters in the colonies will probably outnumber the voters in Orion proper. Yes that's right: in three weeks the Orion executive council could easily consist of Seldomshock, ev0cator, and DarkjesusMN, and the colonies might be made independent with the stroke of a pen. Or at least that was the case, before.

Senntisten's strategy should have been to de-escalate everything and wait for the world to be handed to them on a platter; but instead they are busy provoking more conflict and blowing up their own reputation with everyone in the process, even including fellow colonies like Etherium whose support had previously been a guaranteed fact.

Conclusion, and an appeal to both sides

I call on Orion to honor the spirit of the colonial charter agreement and relax their selectively harsh law enforcement practices, to move forward on implementing the colonial charters to have force of law in Orion, and to treat its current Senntistan prisoners with leniency as a demonstration that Orion prefers extending goodwill over punishing people.

I call on Senntisten to cease all "revolutionary" activity, including making provocative statements, griefing Orion property, and attacking symbols of Orion sovereignty. Since you've won everything you want in negotiations, there's nothing left to be gained from revolution. You have de facto autonomy on paper, and even if Orion drags their feet on implementing it, if you could manage to stop acting like jackasses for three weeks the colonies might even control the Orion government. Instead you have chosen to alienate supporters of your cause to the point that you might just snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I was an early sympathiser for your cause, since I support in principle the self determination of cities and self-identified people groups; however at this point even my patience has worn thin if only due to frustration at seeing you repeatedly shoot your own cause in the foot.

Thus far there have been no statesmen or strategic thinkers visible on either side of this conflict. The primary actors appear to be driven by nothing beyond impulses of the moment for pride and revenge. It's hard to imagine any course of action for either side that would do more damage to its own respective interests. And in the same process, Orion and Senntisten are also hurting the interests of their friends and neighbors such as Aytos and the states of the UMM. A divided and war-torn quadrant serves nothing but the worthless pride of a few individuals, and in the long run it doesn't even serve that.

TLDR: Your petty personal feuds are destroying your respective cities. Wake up and re-evaluate what's actually important, please. Less dick-waving and more strategic thought.