Anthony Rizzo has had a great season, but by most stats he hasn't been quite as good as Bryce Harper, Paul Goldschmidt, and even Joey Votto and Andrew McCutcheon. He's good but not #1 in stats like OPS, bWAR, fWAR, home runs, average, etc.

So conventionally, Rizzo's MVP chances have to rest on voters valuing a player on a playoff team over the simple best player out there. (And on the Nationals not putting a September run together.)

But there's one stat where Rizzo is leading all of baseball that makes a VERY good argument that he has been, in fact, the "most valuable player" in the National League:

WPA.

Win Probability Added measures how much a given play changed a team's likelihood of winning. A home run in a tie game in the 9th has a much bigger impact on a team's chances than a home run in the 9th in a 15-1 blowout. Similarly a strikeout in a close game, or with runners on, matters more than a strikeout with bases empty and a huge leader or deficit.

And Anthony Rizzo has accumulated more WPA than anyone in baseball.

(In fact, Kris Bryant is #3 in the NL, with only Votto in between.)

No stat is perfect, but WPA suggests Anthony Rizzo has done significantly more to help his team win than those other players who, sans context, are having better seasons at the plate.