Using data from the 2019, 2020, and 2022 recruiting classes, I looked into the rates at which Official Visits (OVs), Commitments, and Decommitments ended up signing w/ that team.

I found there was a strong signal in the ranking of players, where there signing rates were different for Top Rated Players vs Lower Rated Players. So I decided to do a 100 rank window moving average to help capture the continuum of these rank-differences.

The results are pretty intuitive:

• Recruits who commit to a school end up signing there ~80-90% of the time
• Official Visits have a lower signing rate, with Top Recruits signing only 40% of the time and lower rated recruits signing ~75% of the time.
• Surprisingly, decommitments ended up signing with the school they decommitted from approximately 5% of the time.

Trivia: Eight 5-Stars in the dataset (2019, 2020, 2022) decommited from a program that they later signed with, who are they?

Twitter Link