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Comparing Recruiting Rankings vs Actual Rankings
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Hey ya'll, so recently I've been looking at the team recruiting rankings during this offseason, and that got me thinking, how have teams been doing recently over the past few seasons on the field compared to how they recruit? So I wanted to try and figure out how every teams end of the season ranking matches up with what their recruiting rank is. And thats what I did.

I compiled each FBS teams recruiting rank (from 247Sports) over the past ten seasons and then averaged them out to get an average recruiting rank. Then, I used the Massey Rankings system (because they rank all teams plus they seem to be pretty reliable) from the past ten seasons and also averaged it out to get an average-end of the season rank for each team. After that, I compared each teams recruiting rank with their end of the season rank and got a number to determine how each team does compared to their recruiting. And here's all the data:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1rcH4p1C-4IPYfER8PYpklipG4RvVURqry4SlOwqYSpQ/edit?usp=sharing

As you can see, most P5 programs are in the red compared to G5 programs, which makes sense considering they always recruit well but might have a few terrible seasons. G5 teams always recruit poor but might have a few very succesful seasons. So you shouldnt compare P5 teams to G5 teams, but instead compare P5 to P5 and G5 to G5

Side note: I did not include the 2017 rankings. I averaged out the recruiting rankings from 2007 to 2016 and the end of the season rankings from 2007 to 2016

Soooooo... After looking at all this data...

Here are the Most overachieving P5 teams:

  1. Wisconsin

  2. TCU

  3. Kansas St

  4. Utah

  5. Northwestern

And the most underachieving P5 teams:

  1. Virginia

  2. Maryland

  3. Tennessee

  4. Miami

  5. Colorado

Most Overachieving G5 Teams

  1. Navy

  2. Air Force

  3. Boise State

  4. Northern Illinois

  5. Utah State

Most Underachieving G5 Teams:

  1. Tulane

  2. Tulsa

  3. FAU

  4. SMU

  5. FIU

Comments

Could you add a ranking for both? Like Alabama has a recruiting average of 3, which makes it ranked 1st, and a Massey composite of 6.7, which is also 1st, but for every team?

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7 years ago