A lot of people are taking what Kirby said on today's show at face value without taking into account the impact of this week's upcoming games. I think when people are thinking about the context of Ohio State in the playoff, they are completely ignoring the fact that there's an additional # in the W column that will completely re-shift the rankings.

Let's start with the Week 13 Top 10 rankings that were just released:

• 1. Alabama (12-0)
• 2. Ohio State (11-1)
• 3. Clemson (11-1)
• 4. Washington (11-1)
• 5. Michigan (10-2)
• 6. Wisconsin (10-2)
• 7. Penn State (10-2)
• 8. Colorado (10-2)
• 9. Oklahoma (9-2)
• 10. Oklahoma State (9-2)

As it stands to date, these rankings are extremely justifiable. Alabama is in its class of its own as the only undefeated P5. Ohio State has the strongest resume of any 11-1 team. Michigan has the strongest resume of any 10-2 team.

I think the key thing most people are missing is that the Conference Winner, H2H, and other tiebreakers are IN ADDITION to the benefit of playing an extra game. Let's assume the following scenario:

• Alabama beats Florida
• Clemson beats VT
• Washington beats Colorado
• PSU beats Wisconsin
• Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State

Now check out the list with the updated wins and losses:

• 1. Alabama (13-0)
• 2. Ohio State (11-1)
• 3. Clemson (12-1)
• 4. Washington (12-1)
• 5. Michigan (10-2)
• 6. Wisconsin (10-3)
• 7. Penn State (11-2)
• 8. Colorado (10-3)
• 9. Oklahoma (10-2)
• 10. Oklahoma State (9-3)

Here's where Ohio State's drop begins due to the chairman's logic of ranking teams based on clear separation and then applying tiebreakers. As it stands if the above were to happen, Clemson and Washington should be ranked above Ohio State due to a better W/L record and a conference championship. Penn State will jump both Michigan and Wisconsin due to the same exact logic. The resulting rankings should look as follows:

• 1. Alabama (13-0)
• 2. Clemson (12-1)
• 3. Washington (12-1)
• 4. Ohio State (11-1)
• 5. Penn State (11-2)
• 6. Michigan (10-2)
• 7. Wisconsin (10-3)
• 8. Oklahoma (10-2)
• 9. Colorado (10-3)
• 10. USC (9-3)

Now it's here where I believe that Ohio State can no longer claim clear separation due to the following:

• Both teams would've beaten a ranked, quality opponent in Wisconsin.
• The argument of Ohio State beating Michigan, which was a team that beat PSU by 30 early in the season, would no longer hold water as a) PSU will have the same # of wins as OSU and one more than Michigan b) Penn State finished the season going 4-0 making easy work of Iowa, Michigan State, Rutgers, and Iowa, one of which beat Michigan (Iowa) and two others that gave Ohio State and Michigan a good challenge (Indiana and MSU, with MSU almost beating OSU), which Michigan finished the season 2-2.
• A Conference Championship for PSU
• A Head to Head for PSU

Because of this, I feel pretty strongly that PSU will jump OSU for the #4 spot and will be a lock for the CFP if it takes care of business. Ohio State will get in if either Clemson or Washington lose. If both Washington and Clemson lose, I believe Colorado will jump Michigan using the same logic above to be the #4 seed behind PSU and OSU.

Fire away!

EDIT: A bunch of crappy stupid typos.