I think the selection committee is going to stress conference champions and that there are basically 7 teams, let's call them "categories" that are competing for 4 spots in the playoff. There's a pecking order, but some teams have to play each other and are going to lose. The categories are the SEC champ, ACC Champ, B1G Champ, Big 12 Champ, Pac 12 Champ, Notre Dame, and the 2nd best SEC team. Two losses knocks you out unless you're a 2 loss SEC champ or there aren't four one loss teams among these 7 teams that are still alive.

I created a spreadsheet to track the teams that are still eligible

I did my best to vertically rank which category gets priority, but this is obviously subjective and depends how things shake out. Priority between Pac 12, B1G, Big 12, and ND is going to depend on what team out of that conference wins, so right now its ranked assuming the top team in that category wins the conference. Teams within each category are ranked horizontally. Some teams are highly unlikely and would have to run the table and get some help but if they are eligible for a category, they are still on here. I'm going to update each week.