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The fact that markets are not responding to global stimulus packages offered by central banks makes sense cuz if you are in a state of quarantine the velocity of money is just crushed and spending won’t increase even if you throw money outta the sky ! Looking forward to some constructive discussions !!!
Look at the NY Fed nowcast for Q2...
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast
Then using the law of large numbers and the power of price for data aggregation...
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4292/Will-there-be-a-recession-in-Trump's-1st-term
I think it is clear we have at least a 90% chance of moving into a recession. But I think we have a higher than usual chance of swinging out of it very quickly because Covid-19 is a temporary exogenous factor. So maybe you could say that we actually have fat tails on both sides of this event- of course it could be devastating, but we have potential for it to be but a blip.
We remind our clients right now to brace for 'fastest ever' declines in economic data, but that is very different than 'worst ever' or 'longest ever'. Also, I think that firms will use this opportunity to empty the skeletons out of the closet. Lots of write-downs etc. that will be blamed on the virus- whether warranted or not.
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