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Several friends and I play this game together, and we've been working to try and clarify some of the more confusing or poorly explained mechanics in the game.
After testing this many times over between us on different servers, we believe we've exposed (probably not the best term, but what I'm running with) the overall mechanic behind Guild Rewards.
The overall pulls are in fact random, however, the resets are not.
Throughout all of our testing, we've found that the best practice is not to use the resets available on lower rewards that may not pay out as well, but rather on the highest reward you received as part of the daily pull.
The reason being is that doing a reset NEVER lowers your rewards, but has a high likelihood of raising them.
Using this method, one of the people in our group have gotten over 100 shards for Aizen in a little over 2 months time. Since we all started testing this, we've all seen a dramatic increase in shard drops for Aizen.
I'm posting this in an effort to try and help the player base, but also in hopes that we can get some more testing done to confirm outside our small group. I'm also trying to share this knowledge to help improve the experience we all have playing this game.
Please feel free to post your results here too and have an open and respectful discussion about the subject at hand. Let's not turn this into a discussion on F2P vs P2W or anything like that.
We all love this series and the world it takes place in. We all want to have fun and participate in that world together. Let's do so by helping one another.
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