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Yes, it is exciting to consider the possibility of doubling your money within a week/month/etc... but as a careful note to those just entering the Bitcoin world, I feel the need to express some thoughts.
Short-term speculation is highly risky and completely misses the point
First of all, even at $1 billion, the Bitcoin economy is far too small to speculate about in the short-term. There are too many people with deep pockets able to push this market one way or the other.
Secondly, any serious investor looking get into the next big technology won't look as deeply into the technology's past or present as they do the future potential of the technology. They look at the technology's competition, ease of use, and ease of understandability among the average Joe.
What does Bitcoin offer over it's competition?
Bitcoin only inflates by a measly 3600 units each day, which isn't enough to satisfy current demand. This essentially makes it a deflationary currency. Would you rather have your wealth stored in a currency that automatically increases in value over time (deflationary like Bitcoin) or decreases (inflationary like all government currencies)?
As a way to pay for new programs, services, or wars governments often enthusiastically inflate their currencies - destroying the wealth of their own citizens in the process. This cannot happen with Bitcoin. If a government were to adopt Bitcoin, it would be forced to keep a balanced budget or it will be doomed to fail. This discourages great expenditures like war, for example.
With Bitcoin you can instantly transfer money to someone across vast distances and borders instantly without paying large fees. Want to support rebels fighting a tyrannical government? Want to get money instantly to organizations helping victims of the latest natural disaster? Some day you might be able to help those causes the very same day you send them some Bitcoins.
In current currency systems, every debit or credit card transaction is automatically charged roughly a 2-3% transaction fee. Transaction fees with Bitcoin are far less and completely voluntary (if you're not in a hurry for the transaction to be processed).
There are many more benefits that just those... but are these benefits enough to bring about mass adoption of this technology (which is required to trigger price increases)? And what percentage of the market over it's competition can we expect? Those are the questions speculators need to be asking.
Disclaimer: I have, on occasion, tried to speculate on Bitcoin's short-term price... and ended up on the losing end EVERY DAMN TIME.
TL;DR; - When speculating, focus on long-term potential of Bitcoin, not short-term.
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- 11 years ago
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