On Wednesday morning, we took a close look at the campaign here in Cowper, and with the campaign over, we're going to analyse it again, looking at all 4 candidates campaigns, again in ballot order.

JosephB2002 - The Nationals

JosephB2002 has undoubtedly had the weakest campaign of anyone this election, initially campaigning in Victoria before realising he was running here. Unfortunately, it seems our Parliament will be catboy free. We predict he'll win about 5-10%, mainly owing to National's name recognition and a late Liberal endorsement.

Flarelia - Country Labor Party

Flarelia has run a good campaign this election, releasing a booklet of policies and visiting voters across the state. This is an election where the Country Labor is likely to grow and has run a good campaign nationwide. We predict he'll win around 25-30%.

mikiboss - Social Democratic Party

The incumbent MP for this seat, Cowper will be vital to win for the SDP if they have any hope of returning to government. mikiboss' campaign has not been as strong as other candidates, but it's still been pretty good, if pulled back. We predict he'll win about 40-45%.

model-amn - Independent

model-amn has run a seniors-focused campaign this election. While it's hard to imagine the majority of Cowper voters being receptive, there's certainly a large amount of people who will agree with her message, and her campaign has been pretty good. We predict she'll win around 20-25%.

There's no doubt that mikiboss has the advantage here. But there is the possibility of an upset. Ultimately, it all depends, as we said last time, who's in the two-party-preferred. While we think Flarelia will probably win more primary votes than model-amn, Nationals preferences could put model-amn ahead. If that happens, mikiboss has probably held the seat as Country Labor is preferencing the Social Democrats.

But if model-amn can't make up her deficit, things become a lot more interesting. Her and the Nationals have both preferenced Country Labor. In a scenario where Country Labor makes it into the two-party-preferred, mikiboss needs to reach around 45% in order to get back in, otherwise it's a real possibility that the minor party preferences could flow to the CLP.

Of course, a lot could change. Perhaps the campaign of the smaller players wasn't as big as we thought, and mikiboss gets back in easily. Maybe the opposite happens- mikiboss' primary vote declines into the mid-to-high 30s. But ultimately, this is our guess of what could happen. But what do we think will happen? We think the SDP will hold here.