KATIE MCBRIDE- Campaigning has begun for the federal election. In the seat of Cowper, 4 candidates have put their hands forward, and we'll go through them one by one, in order of their position on the ballot. We've also reached out to them all individually.

JosephB2002 - The Nationals

Perhaps the oddest case, when we reached out to JosephB2002, he told us that he wasn't running in Cowper, that he didn't consent to run in Cowper, and that he wasn't in New South Wales. He launched his federal election campaign in Ballarat, which is not in New South Wales. But presumably, once he got a sternly worded phone call from Nationals HQ, he has begun to campaign here, promising better agriculture, building and investing into 40,000 new jobs, and investing into eco-friendly transport.

Flarelia - Country Labor Party

Flarelia ran in Brisbane for the Social Democrats 6 months ago, but has now changed ranks to the Country Labor Party. He told us that he was focusing on "those issues that affect residents of Cowper every day, fighting for rural small businesses, educational opportunities and access in both higher education and apprenticeships, building better healthcare services to cover rural areas." In a campaign stop in Port Macquarie this morning, Flarelia, among other things, pledged that the CLP would create an independent climate commission and coastal corrosion defence efforts to tackle what he called freak weather and flooding.

mikiboss - Social Democratic Party

mikiboss has served as MP for Cowper since the July 2020 upset which delivered the SDP government. mikiboss told us that, as an MP, he felt that "I have been able to address the concerns of Regional New South Wales, be it through working to help set up the National Insurance Scheme, working to improve support for primary industries, or my current efforts to improve media diversity in regional areas." mikiboss visited Wagga Wagga on Monday, where he addressed the issues of regional news media and Australian industry.

model-amn - Independent

model-amn, a member of the unregistered Seniors Party, is running as an independent this election. She told us that she was "bringing seniors issues to the forefront this election, and running on a senior-centred platform". In a visit yesterday to Grafton, model-amn told us that she discussed "the intersection of old age and femininity, and how it plays into higher rates of poverty for older women". In her campaign launch in Lismore, she spoke about issues of poverty and cold houses, and how there was "no-one in Parliament standing up for seniors interests".

Taking a broader look at the race, the re-election of incumbent mikiboss seems likely. His status within Cowper as the incumbent MP means that he has a strong local profile, and while Country Labor and model-amn have been running good campaigns, they seem unlikely to prevail.

It is more likely than not that Bloc preferences will stay together, so if the two-party preferred does not include Country Labor, we would reckon mikiboss would need to cross 40% to be bought across the line by the CLP. Anything under that would make the race interesting, and open to an upset.

If the Country Labor Party does make it into the two-party-preferred, a lot will depend on the preferences. The preferences of model-amn and The Nationals are less predictable, and so in that case, mikiboss would probably need about 45% to be safe.