By Jefferson Dufflecoat

The General Election is just 5 days away and with candidates finally revealed along with their places on the ballot, the strategies of each and every party and candidate is out there for all to see. But where will the wind blow come election time? With so far to go in campaigning it may be too early for any true predictions. But then again someone has to be first don't they? Let's take a look at the candidates and the state of play

Note: These are by no means my FINAL predictions. Just how I feel the races stack up with no real hard blows landed in campaigning yet,

Cowper

Popular incumbent MP Mikiboss will look to hold onto the seat he knocked the then Prime Minister Griffo out of in the most daring move of the 17th General Election. Up against JoesphB2002 of the Nationals and Flarelia of the CLP. Although the Nationals Candidate has been campaigning in Nicholls instead of Cowper, thus blunting his effectiveness in this seat

The wild card in this seat is the unregistered Australian Seniors Party candidate, model-amn. They have surprised at elections before and it would not surprise me if they pushed the CLP for second place in the count. Nonetheless, Mikiboss has been a strong candidate for Cowper for two terms and it's going to be an uphill battle for any of the other candidates to move them.

Jefferson's First Impression: SDP RETAIN

Moncrief

Nationals deputy leader Riley8583 once again defends the seat he won in a by-election in the middle of the 18th term, up against fivekoalas of the Greens Left and Captain_Plat_2208 of the CLP.

On the surface this looks like a Nationals retain but Riley will have do it alone unless he can pull off a miracle save in preference deals, the two bloc members will likely preference each other meaning Riley will have to poll at at least 47% on the first preference to get there. With a so far stong campaign coming from the Green Left, it could depend on how hard the CLP choose to contest. Riley's base hasn't gone anywhere and the left may cancel each other out.

Jefferson's First Impression: Likely National GAIN (From Liberals)

Pearce

The Prime Minister's seat as NGSpy once again tries to retain the seat he has held for so long, up against the National party candidate Infinitex9 and the CLP's Charlemagne.

I wish I had more to offer on this one but it's one of the easiest seats to call in the entire election. It's likely NGSpy's for as long as they want it.

Jefferson's First Impression: SDP RETAIN

Sydney

A rare two horse race as long time member for Denison Dyljam tries to take this seat for the SDP as he stands against the Nationals aries2464.

This seat lost a lot of its luster when popular Independent Explosivo announced they would not be recontesting. As it stands here now this one seems easy.

Jefferson's First Impression: SDP GAIN

Hotham

One of the more intriguing contests as incumbent MP Mad_Bear_O_Melbourne tries to hold off a spirited challenge from the Australian Democrats and GHagrid. The Nats are also contesting this seat with their candidate Mrcri but they're unlikely to be a factor outside of where their preferences go.

MBOM has been one of the stronger members of the new Green Left Party and will be hard to toople but Hagrid is well known and well respected in the seat, it's likely once again to go down to the wire and where the Nats go on their how to vote may very well decide who gets up at the end of the night.

Jefferson's First Impression: Too Close to Call.

Robertson

With the former leader of the Democrats Jayden_Williamson standing down to take up a position on the high court, this seat has become one to play for again. Five candidates join the fray to be the new member. The Democrats hope to retain the seat with new candidate SurfingNooty. The Nationals field 12MaxWild. The CLP send UncookedMeatloaf into action. The GLP have Elleeit and the Libs have wildcard Umatbru.

This one is a little harder to read than most as most candidates here are unknown quantities along with one basket case in Umatbru. My first impression is the Democrat's are Slightly ahead giving Nooty had a reputation from running in previous by-elections around the country but honestly, this is a pick-'em, whoever has the strongest campaign will likely win the day,

Jefferson's First Impression: Too Close to Call. Democrats slightly ahead

Denison

Griffo stands again against challenges from the GLP in Thinh_ and the CLP in artemisjasper.

....Yeah let's just move on. No drama here.

Jefferson's First Impression: Nationals GAIN (From Liberals)

Lingiari

ThanksHeadMod will try and hold onto the seat he gained in the by-election, facing a challenge from BestinBounds of the CLP and BrexitGlory for the Nationals.

Another Wildcard in this contest is Independent Anacornda. While my first impression is they're not likely to be as strong as the independent in Cowper due to time in the political wilderness but a strong campaign could change that fast, Ultimately this election may come down to the bad blood between the Liberals and the Nationals, will ThanksHeadMod be able to unite the right to get preference deal or will the memories of the fracture of the two parties allow the CLP to sneak in the back door. It would be a massive capture for the CLP to get it. My first impression is they're going to need all the cards to fall their way though, and that's unlikely.

Jefferson's First Impression: Likely LIB RETAIN

Mayo

Shockingly for Mayo only two candidates will stand this time. cool_santa of the CLP will try and hold off the challenge of the Nationals Kisakuwu.

Normally Mayo is one of the hardest seats to predict because of the sheer unpredictability of the candidates. Not this time however, the fact the other members of the Bloc chose to avoid this seat should tell you all you need to know.

Jefferson's First Impression: CLP RETAIN

Capricornia

Now THIS is a seat we may be hearing a lot about this time around. The SDP's ARichTeaBiscuit will once again hope to retain the seat they've held for a while now, but they will face a strong two pronged attack from the Right with the Liberals choosing to stand TheAudibleAsh and the Nationals fielding RMSteve, the former member for Mayo. The CLP are also contesting but their candidate UNESCO is not expected to feature prominently in this race.

Ultimately again this may come down to what both the Libs and the Nats do with their preferences, if they preference each other, whoever finishes second to ARTB is likely to go on and win, it would certainly be a huge scalp and ARTB is in for one hell of a fight.

Jefferson's First Impression: Too Close to Call

Brisbane

Another seat that will garner attention but for a different reason. Can Long time Incumbent GenericCerealHere regain the seat he turned into a Liberal Party fortress when he was Prime Minister? He stands against the Nationals Boyrauty and the Democrats candidate New_Echidnal.

Unlike the other seats where the Liberals and Nationals stand against each other there is no real guessing about where preferences will go here, if "Porriidge" is to win here, he's going to have to do it himself on first preferences, he'll get no help from the Nationals. But the power of former incumbency might just be enough.

Jefferson's First Impressions: Likely LIB RETAIN

I'm going to skip over Nicholls for now. Save the best for last as they say.

Cunningham

Liberal Party leader Stranger195 will look to defend his seat against strong challenges from the GLP in TheNorthernMarshall, the Nationals in the form of Passivebread and the SDP in Rohanite.

Again preferences may come into play here. If the Nationals work out a deal with Stranger. Easy Liberal Retain. If they favor the GLP, Stranger could be in danger. I still think he holds the lead in this one though.

Jefferson's First Impression: Likely LIB RETAIN

Melbourne

Another seat that lost some luster when the sitting member, in this case the SDP's NeatSaucer, chose not to recontest the seat. Competing to become the new Member for Melbourne are RussianHacker for the Nationals. TheTrashMan for the GLP and model-putrid for the Australian Democrats.

I can't pretend in this one I know much about the candidates themselves, so this is likely to come down to both the campaign and preferences. I can't say I know enough yet to make a definitive call in this one. Whoever comes second out of the GLP and the Democrats will probably go on to win. But this is a toss up.

Jefferson's First Impression Too Close to Call

Canberra

Another two horse race. The Australian Democrat's leader Matthias_Caesar up against the Nationals Carter_Weinklause.

To be honest I'm a little shocked this seat wasn't more hotly contested, yes Matthias has been one of the strongest politicians in this term but the drama and collapse of the Democrats had to have left a chink in the armor, one that wasn't exploited by anyone. This one is easy.

Jefferson's First Impression: Australian Democrats RETAIN

Nicholls

And so finally we turn to Nicholls. And where do you even begin with this?

Okay let's push the countdown of candidates aside here, otherwise you'll be reading another half an hour. This is primarily a two horse race unless there is a hell of a campaign out there from one of the other parties. It's likely a straight shootout between the GLP's Incumbent UnknownTrainor and the returning Independent former incumbent showstealer1829. Some people were a little surprised when the Essential Poll came out and put the two neck and neck on 22%. I wasn't. For all the drama that was the creation of the Green Left Party and the walking away from the SDP, UnknownTrainor has been a strong member for Nicholls, certainly better than anyone since showstealer was forced to step away for medical issues. Yes showstealer has a strong and rabid support base, always has, always will. And yes, he has a proven track record behind him, but he is still an independent and The Bloc are here as well. Whether that is a good thing or a bad thing for UnknownTrainor remains to be seen, but ultimately this will come down to what the Nationals, the Liberals and the other independents choose to do with their preferences. If they go UnknownTrainor, he wins, if they turn to showstealer, the "panda" is likely back in Parliament.

Jefferson's First Impression Too Close to Call

So to the final tally then, again bare in mind this is NOT a prediction, just the state of play based off my first impressions.

SDP: 3

LIB: 3

NAT: 2

CLP: 1

AD: 1

Too Close to Call: 5

Meaning that if the right side of politics can settle their differences, it's 5-5 and it's all to play for.

It certainly will be an interesting campaign.