In my opinion, buyout conversations could start as early as November given two good outcomes: Karisma shows MBD reduction, and the patent dispute is resolved such that ATOS retains its IP. Once MBD is legally required to be disclosed on mammograms, I expect big pharma will be interested in offering a drug to reduce it.

If the 40mg data shows tumor reduction/apoptosis, that would just be a cherry on top, but the buyer would be looking at another five years of trial funding before getting into that market. So an MBD focused buyout offer would probably include some sort of discounted valuation for neo-adjuvant therapy.

As for this recent pop…. I think it’s entirely driven by the AACR announcement. SP doesn’t have to merely reflect buyout potential; the value of Endoxifen should be represented by the stock price, and right now our market cap puts that at 60M, which is a mere 10% of tamoxifen’s annual revenue. If AACR shows us that Endoxifen has a chance of replacing tamoxifen eventually, the value of Endoxifen (ATOS’s share price) should increase dramatically.