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There is a coming "Quiet Period"
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We have all enjoyed the emotional rush of recent press releases, the push for and achievement of listing compliance, news, updates, etc.

There's a coming quiet period though. Weeks, maybe even months while trials run and data is amassed to validate the value of our investment in ATOS. This isn't a short squeeze, or financial maneuver. It's just going to take time to be in a position to be bought out for the best possible price. It will also be our opportunity to DCA in as price settles, lower cost basis for many of you (increase mine a bit, sorry, not sorry).

I feel like the ATOS team responds to what's going on in the socials, and while it is natural to want a buy-out as soon as possible, ratcheting down our rhetoric and signalling to the management team that we have the patience to achieve results will serve us better in the long run. The farther along the development timeline Z gets, the higher price a buyout offer is likely to be. So, for my own $.02, now that listing compliance has been achieved, let's take a break from projecting our winfall, and let the trials do what they're designed to do, generate good, solid data that supports and increases the value of this drug.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see buyout news in the near-term. With some solid investing success under my belt from earlier this year, even a mediocre buyout by year end would put my 2023 rate of return into the stratosphere. But, out of respect for the time-consuming nature of the drug I'm going to personally straight-up ignore this one for a bit. It doesn't need lime-light right now, it needs the P2 studies to progress, the P3 planning to progress, a little ribbon here, a little tape there, and to work itself into that perfect package that screams "You want to buy me" to big pharma.

Let's let this one do its thing and make us enough money to warrant getting together to celebrate our gains when it's all over.

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I don’t mind the $40 projection; it’s got legs. Tamoxifen nets ~700M/year. If Endox replaces it, a 6x multiplier gets us to $5B which is roughly $40/share. The only point of Tamox is to deliver Endox, so higher medicinal quantities with fewer side effects has a strong chance of becoming the new standard of care.

Moreover, the MBD market is wide open, and Quay is most excited about this one because 10M women in the US alone could benefit from Endox.

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Possibly, but I don’t think so. When we have an offer on the table, we’ll have (hopefully) successful results from both Karisma and Evangeline. At that point Endox’s value will be pretty clear. Surrendering perhaps 1B of valuation in exchange for taking over trials, we still clear 5B easy.

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1 year ago