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Has a replacement candidate ever won?
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My question is: How many times in our history has it happened that the sitting President has decided not run, or has dropped out near the election, and the new 'replacement' candidate went on to win?

I keep hearing that a sitting president always 'has the advantage'.
I know there have been a couple of times when a sitting president has decided not to run. I think LBJ was the most recent. Hubert Humphrey ran instead, and lost.

If Biden is replaced, how likely (historically) is it for the new Dem to win?

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4 months ago