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On Election Night, when the east coast polls start reporting, what state will make you think Harris/Walz could pull off the win?
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I'll definitely give a sigh of relief with PA.

I think if OH or GA go blue, I'll start breathing heavy.

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Never say never but Ohio going blue is incredibly unlikely in my opinion. Sherrod Brown is going to outperform Harris in the results. Ohio is a red state now, though not deep red. The Trump/Biden polling was pretty competitive and it ended up not being close.

North Carolina and Georgia are unlikely because the margin of victory in those two states if Harris wins will be in the margin of a few ten thousand votes.

I don't believe from an electoral college perspective that the race will be an early call. The country is just too polarized. The deciding call will be from the trio of Wisconsin/Michigan/Pennsylvania.

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Centrist Democrat

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3 months ago