Hey U curious cucks.

I put this in the pre-market but Mum and Dad suggested it should be a post.

Some of you are probably wondering where all this uranium demand is coming from, because you're comparing it to the lithium setup with expected massive growth in lithium demand from EV's etc etc.

The primary basis for this thesis is that uranium production has been BELOW demand for over a decade. For over a decade utilities have been eating into secondary supply, now there is none left and there aren't enough uranium mines producing enough uranium for the CURRENT utility demand.

Demand has been pretty flat for a while with many countries planning to phase out nuclear energy, in 2023 there were 5 reactors shut down and 5 reactors connected to the grid with a net capacity gain that really isn't massive, but there are 16 planned for connection in 2024.

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Even with all the planned mine restarts and anticipated development projects coming online with the planned reactor connections the supply deficit still exists long into the future. Most in this space are not expecting a spike and pullback like the cigar lake flood event pre-Fukushima, but a more long-term structural supply issue that will keep prices elevated for longer before they eventually pullback similar to the bull run during the oil shock in the 70's.

The above is all based on expected mines starting and expected builds connecting. The demand also currently factors in expected reactor shutdowns. This is where near term demand is changing now. E.g. Belgium was going to shutdown all their reactors by 2025, but reversed their nuclear phase-out plans and committed to 10yr life extensions, this is all new unexpected demand that needs to secure uranium delivery contracts now. Similarly in the US Diablo Canyon was meant to shutdown in 2025, but was extended by 5yrs. The French are pushing their reactors from 40 to 60yrs. Japan restarted another reactor last year, and recently announced they've lifted the operational ban on the world's largest reactor which was only shut down 2 years ago. All of this and more is unexpected demand compounding the supply deficit that already exists.

So won’t supply just ramp up to match current demand? Unlikely soon, after Fukushima the U price tanked so theres been a chronic underinvestment in exploration for a decade. All the restarts are up and running again, and there’s only a handful of development ready projects from the last cycle that can get up and running in the next 5yrs. Everything else is pushing 2030 before it’s online. All of this is factored into the current supply deficit. Over the weekend we got news that the largest U producer in the world KatAtomProm is likely to miss production targets in 2024 and 2025, if the rumours/estimates are true there’s a further deficit of 10Mlb and 20Mlb respectively. Expect to see more supply issues with ISR mines most likely. Throw in a shit slinging contest between US and Russia with the US expected to pass a bill through the senate this month banning Russia U imports beyond current contracts and we could see a real bifurcation of the market with premiums paid for non-Russian linked U.

If Australia pulls their finger out and lifts the U mining ban in WA we’ve got a real supply matching situation because Australia’s U reserves are twice the size of Kazakhstan. But even then, still need to factor in timeframe of exploration expanding, development etc etc. This can occur without us ever building a nuclear reactor. After all, our economy is built on digging shit out of the ground and sending it overseas.

U is a volatile beast, if the last bull run is anything to go off expect numerous 30-40% pullbacks.

If like me you are/were an anti-nuclear supporter but have become U curious watch the Oliver Stone doco Nuclear Now which you can stream on DocPlay on a 30-day free trial via Amazon Prime to learn why a repeat of Chernobyl and Fukushima will be very very unlikely because we've learnt our lessons from those poor reactor designs.

*Insert letters and statements about making your own financial decisions and all that. Soz no tickers or rockets.

P.s. which commodity is next? Lithium 2.0, copper? fuck gold, useless metal.

P.p.s any trade that can get a fellow regard to piss themselves in excitement for our enjoyment is good. u/mezdawg69

TLDR: Chris Bowen is a smooth brain.