Arrival currently has 64,000 LOIs and non-binding orders.

12% (7680) of these are buses with an approximate value of $500k each. (This is the equivalent price of a diesel bus which Arvl has pledged to meet.

The remaining 88% are van orders (56,320). We can see from the Ups deal that the average van is $45,000 (£34,000).

So, in terms of our total LOI and non-binding orders:

Buses: $3.84bn Vans: $2.53bn

Total: $6.37bn.

Current market cap:$2.03bn.

Fully understand that LOIs are not a guarantee but the majority of the orders are from various sources which I’d suggest makes a full scale wipeout unlikely.

Heck, if we assume a 50% conversion rate from the current order book we’re still way ahead for a growth company’s value.

Full disclosure: I own 4171 shares at an average price of $5.71. I will continue to purchase shares on additional drops.

Links for all stats: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/uks-arrival-unveils-pre-production-prototype-electric-bus-2021-11-18/ (12% of orders buses)

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2020/10/14/arrivals-electric-vehicle-vision-gets-118-million-infusion-from-blackrock/?sh=6bd8f2931ee6 Quote (‘Arrival hasn’t provided prices for its bus, but diesel-powered models go for about $500,000 each and battery-powered versions can sell for at least $200,000 more.’)

Edit 1: holy moly, we’re 4% green. What is this sorcery you speak of