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Division: AFC South (2nd)

Record: 9-8-0 (4-2-0 division)

Playoffs: Nope

Introduction: The Jacksonville Jaguars of late November were a team in mathematical position to contend for the No. 1 overall seed.

The Jacksonville Jaguars of December and January beefed it bad enough to miss the playoffs entirely.

The Jags had a bit of a rough start in facing the "oh FFS they're another dynasty" Kansas City Chiefs for their first home game of 2023, followed by a loss to Houston that's a bit less surprising in hindsight. They followed it up with five straight wins before a bad 34-3 loss to white-hot San Francisco, but two divisional wins over Tennessee and Houston had many fans feeling back on track at 8-3.

Then the damn wheels fell off. A string of four straight losses started with a national OT loss to Cincinnati in which Trevor Lawrence suffered a high ankle sprain and never looked the same after, amassing additional injuries along the way as he started up to Week 17 vs. Carolina. The Jags lost every game leading up to Carolina, making the final Week 18 rematch vs. Tennessee a win-or-go-home game. Just as we had done to them the year before, the Titans played spoiler, knocking Jacksonville out of the playoffs.

A couple key pieces are in place for the Jaguars in 2024: Josh Allen received the franchise tag, and a new defensive coaching staff is in place under DC Ryan Nielsen.

2023 Offseason (Free Agency, Draft) (by InexorableWaffle)

Free Agency:

• Key Signings – Brandon McManus (K), D’Ernest Johnson (RB)
• Key Losses – Jawaan Taylor (OT), Arden Key (Edge)

Overall, 2023 Free Agency was an atypically quiet one for the Jags. We had few key outgoing players, and signed even fewer incoming ones. There isn’t overly much to say about the names here because there just…aren’t many names at all.

Draft:

• Anton Harrison, OT, 1.27
• Brenton Strange, TE, 2.61
• Tank Bigsby, RB, 3.88
• Ventrell Miller, LB, 4.121
• Tyler Lacy, DE, 4.130
• Yasir Abdullah, LB, 5.136
• Antonio Johnson, S, 5.160
• Parker Washington, WR, 6.185
• Christian Braswell, CB, 6.202
• Erick Hallett, S, 6.208
• Cooper Hodges, OT, 7.226
• Raymond Vohasek, DT, 7.227
• Derek Parish, DE, 7.240

For as extensive a list as this is, our 2023 draft class had a rather underwhelming first year in the league. Anton Harrison had a good rookie season as the Jags’ starting RT, especially as a pass protector (even if his run blocking is a work in progress), and Antonio Harrison looked like a steal in his limited playing time, netting two interceptions and a sack in 190 snaps. Parker Washington also showed promise late in the season out in the slot when Christian Kirk was injured. Outside of that trio, though, there were few bright spots this past season. Brenton Strange ended the season with just 35 yards on 9 total targets, and had more than his fair share of mishaps and penalties during his playing time. Tank Bigsby, meanwhile, struggled mightily as the primary back to Etienne, and saw his role diminish over the course of the season to D’Ernest Johnson despite the latter not being exactly fantastic in his own right. None of the other players on this list played enough to make a notable impression, as most of them either never saw the field at all, or were only out on special teams and/or as deep rotational players.

All in all, not an exceptional start, and definitely not the production you’d want from a draft where the team had 13 draft picks in total. That said, it’s not uncommon for players to struggle in their rookie season and turn it around in their sophomore season, so there remains hope for the draft class to turn it around.

Season Review

Link to season review

High Points and Low Points (by GeckoRoamin)

While this could pretty generally be broken down into "pre-December" and "December and January", here are a few specific highs and lows...

High Points

• The Jaguars snap their Indianapolis losing streak and see Calvin Ridley in action in a 31-21 win over the Colts to start the season.
• Jacksonville defeats Buffalo 25-20 in London, showing they can win over a strong AFC team. The Jaguars get a viral fan in London, too. (Usually, we only go viral for our quarterbacks' appearances or our mascot's post-win stripping.)
• The Jags defeat the Texans 24-21, earning an 8-3 record, a chance to theoretically be the Number 1 seed in the AFC, and a reputation as a potential contender.

(Quick aside here: You'll notice that, when it comes to our highlights, none of them actually came at home. That's because 9-8 Jacksonville won only three games in Duval this season.)

Low Points

• The Jaguars end a 5-game winning streak in an "embarrassing" 34-3 loss to San Francisco that saw Trevor Lawrence turn the ball over 3 times and get sacked 5 times.
• The cursed Cincinnati Bengals game saw not just an overtime loss on national television for Jacksonville but also injuries to Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk. Lawrence played through what turned out to be a high ankle sprain but never looked the same this season, while Kirk's injury required a core muscle surgery that sidelined him for the rest of the season.
• December 2023 and January 2024, just in general.
• Trevor Lawrence was stopped just inches short of what could have been a game-tying drive against Tennessee in Week 18. Instead, the Jags failed to score points on that and a subsequent drive, losing the game 28-20 and getting knocked out of the playoffs by a division rival.

Team Statistics (by GeckoRoamin)

Team statistics (regular season)

Passing Statistics (regular season)

Rushing Statistics (regular season) (min. 100 yards)

Receiving Statistics (regular season) (top 5 in yardage)

Coaching Staff Review (by GeckoRoamin)

Press Taylor, OC

• A man that many in the fanbase want gone appears to be here to stay. Press Taylor took over full-time play calling duties for the entirety of the 2023 season and regressed in categories that include "yards per play, rushing, scoring, third down, red-zone efficiency and DVOA". Still, Pederson largely placed the blame on a lack of offensive execution by players, including Lawrence's turnovers, saying, "It’s not play calling, it’s not the scheme or the design of plays, it’s just having the urgency of ‘we have to protect the football better.'"
• Despite a year that saw offensive struggles, particularly when it comes to getting into the end zone, the Jaguars made only two offensive staff changes: parting ways with RB coach Bernie Parmalee and assistant OL coach Todd Washington.

Mike Caldwell, DC

• Despite showing some strength in factors such as forcing turnovers earlier in the season, the Jags' late season collapse included the defense, and the biggest offseason change to coaching came on this side of the ball. Most of the defensive coaching staff was let go, starting with defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell.
  In the final five games of the season, his defense gave up an average of more than 29 points per game.
• Caldwell was replaced by Ryan Nielsen, who had the same role with Atlanta, whose man-heavy scheme helped improve the Falcons defense in multiple categories.

Doug Pederson, HC

• The biggest criticism of Doug Pederson is not for his direct performance but rather his continued -- and aforementioned -- unwavering support of Taylor. Despite it being considered to be the key factor that lost him his Philadelphia coaching job, the dedication continues in Jacksonville. The upcoming season feels like a key year in determining whether Pederson is making the right call with the Jags to keep Press Taylor...and if not, whether he'll be able to step up and make the call to part ways. Another season of offensive underperformance and continued dedication to Taylor will put Pederson in the hot seat with the fans, and perhaps with ownership. However, it is also worth noting that Pederson has led what was one of the consistently worst teams in the league to two straight winning seasons.
• Despite being one of the worst performers in the league, the offensive line is another area Pederson isn't openly worried about. Earlier this week, Pederson said that a lack of consistency -- particularly OT Cam Robinson missing eight games -- due to injury was the biggest factor in o-line woes. "We really feel comfortable with the guys we have there," he said. (But, perhaps, this could also be a matter of the HC not wanting to throw a lineman under the bus in February.)

Trent Baalke, GM

• If you want a reaction from a Jags fan, say the name Trent Balke. The underperformance of 2023 burned off most of the goodwill that Baalke had earned with the 2022 season's surprise playoff appearance. The latest frustration (in a long line of them) is the inability to get a deal done with Josh Allen, instead using the franchise tag on him and leaving Calvin Ridley likely to become a free agent. There isn't much to say about Baalke that hasn't already been said not just by Jags fans but by 49ers fans, too.

Upcoming Team Free Agents (by InexorableWaffle)

• Josh Allen, EDGE - re-signed via franchise tag
• Calvin Ridley, WR
• Dawuane Smoot, EDGE
• Jamal Agnew, WR/KR
• Tre Herndon, CB
• Tyler Shatley, OG
• Brandon McManus, K

Other names available here

(NOTE: Section was written prior to Josh Allen receiving the franchise tag yesterday.)

While there’s other names on the list, core discussion of the Jags' upcoming FAs has been Josh Allen and Calvin Ridley for the most part, so this section will largely focus on those two.

As our best overall player last year, it makes sense to start this section by focusing on Josh Allen. He’s coming off a season in which he was one of the best edge rushers in the league, and I fully expect his contract to mirror that. $25M per year feels like a starting point, and I frankly wouldn’t be surprised to see him push the $30M per year mark, given the jump in the salary cap for this season. No matter how steep it ends up being, though, I think basically every Jags fan would agree with me when I say that it’d be worth it. No matter how instable the team has been around him, he’s always shown up and done his job without the slightest complaint. He’s a core part of our defense, and he still has room to keep getting better. Regardless of what happens elsewhere, I don’t think it’s exaggeratory to call the offseason a failure if he ends up on another team. Re-signing him should be priority 1, 2, and 3.

The path forward with Ridley is rather murkier. On one hand, his numbers this past season look decent (not great, but decent), and figure only to get better with a year of playing to shake off the rest and to learn the system. On the other, he and Trevor Lawrence never seemed to fully get on the same page, and that disconnect cost us multiple touchdowns, which in turn cost us at least a couple games. He also figures to get an expensive contract that would come with the additional downside of escalating the 3rd rounder we currently owe the Falcons into a 2nd rounder if he signs a contract with us before the start of the league year. Considering that we’re already low on cap space before the aforementioned Josh Allen extension and that we’ve got Trevor Lawrence’s extension on the imminent horizon, it’s entirely plausible that our front office decides it’s not worth bringing him back at the price tag he might want, especially given his age (he’ll be turning 30 next season). My gut feeling is that we end up keeping one of him and Zay Jones, then turn the other one loose (Zay Jones is under contract, but easily could be a cap casualty). However, that remains to be seen.

The other names on the above list, while all capable enough players, are a multiple steps down in terms of importance, and all can be re-signed or replaced without too much heartburn either way. Smoot was a productive rotational edge rusher prior to his Achilles tear in 2022, but had an underwhelming season this past year as he worked his way back. Agnew’s been a great returner and briefly flashed as a WR in 2021 when used in that role more extensively, but has been a liability when called upon on offense since. Herndon’s a fine enough slot corner, but certainly isn’t irreplaceable. Shatley’s the longest tenured Jag and does present depth at a position of need, but he’s getting up there in age, and certainly shouldn’t be counted on as anything beyond depth. Lastly, McManus was great to start the year (going 20 of 22 on FGs in our first ten games), and unreliable down the stretch (going 10 of 15 in our last seven), much like our team as a whole.

Team Needs (in Free Agency and Draft) (by InexorableWaffle)

• Critical Need(s) to Address – Interior OL
• High-Priority Needs – Interior DL
• Moderate/Future Needs – WR, Edge, CB, RB, K
• Low-Priority Needs – LB, TE, OT
• Luxuries and/or Not Needed – QB, P, LS

Why Be a Jags Fan (by GeckoRoamin)

Well, do you like having hopes dashed? At the very least, do you like a sense of mystery about what your team is going to look like next season? The Jaguars have a history of sparks of greatness followed by stretches of darkness, and it remains to be seen what the team will bring to the table in 2024.

One of the better things about being a Jaguars fan is that no one is going to accuse you of being a bandwagoner. The team has never been to a Super Bowl, and its fanbase is one of the smallest in professional football -- although does have a fun international following thanks to the annual London presence. With that, you build quick kinship with anyone you see wearing Jags gear in the wild. You get to yell Duuuuuval, too, which is pretty fun.

With a still quite-young quarterback whose shown flashes of being elite and new management for the defense, there is a chance this team trends in the right direction, and you hop on board before the team makes a strong playoff run. And if not, then your new fandom will include learning a lot about what "rebuilding years" look like.