I made this because Bears just clinched the division, and now we're in the hunt for a first-round bye or even home field advantage and I wanted to see what the odds of that happening are. 538 offers predictions of NFL games based on their Elo rating system so I decided to take their prediction for each game and come up with what chances each team has to end up at each possible seeding.

Here's how each game of the division leaders is rated:

Then, look at tiebreaks:

• If the Cowboys and Bears tie at 10 wins, then the Cowboys take the 3rd seed. Otherwise they (or another NFCE team) take the 4th seed.
• Bears and Saints are both ahead of the Rams in a head-to-head tie.
• Bears will have a better conference record in the event of a tie with the Saints or a 3-way tie.
• In the event of a 3-way tie, after the Bears take the 1-seed the tiebreaker goes back to head-to-head, so Saints take the 2-seed over the Rams.

So, using 538's probabilities I mapped out the chance of each possible outcome for the season, then looked at what the seeding for each outcome would be, and came up with the odds for each potential seeding. I'm assuming of for the sake of simplicity that the Cowboys win their division. Otherwise this gets too complicated.

That puts each team's chances at each seeding at:

A couple extra notes:

• There's a 36% chance the Rams lose at least 1 of their next 2 games, but only a 15% chance the Saints lose at least 2 of their next 3. One of those scenarios need to happen to get a bye week.
• The Bears have a 5.54% chance to get a higher seeding than the Saints. Playing in the Coliseum isn't the end of the world, but we definitely want to avoid playing in the Superdome if possible.

Full work can be found here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1TG5iLsArhw4TDi3LIDhWyi-Jh7YSZ4wVImJVVUPcpY0/edit?usp=sharing