The naval lore in Kaiserreich is a funny thing, as the prospects of a German naval victory in the Great War was below 0. Nonetheless, for us to have a workable scenario, a semi plausible in very very unlikely scenario could perhaps be crafted.

We first start with the Battle of Jutland, where the same hit that historically only destroyed HMS Lion’s Q turret manages to destroy the entire ship, HMS Queen Mary style. With Lion destroyed and Beatty killed, the end result is a muddled confusion as HMS Southampton transfers the flag to Rear Admiral Pakenham on the HMS New Zealand, all while Battlecruiser Fleet was rapidly closing with the Germans. Warspite would not be so lucky in TTL, while Malaya would succumb to its 12 inch starboard hit that started a flash, detonating its magazines. Barham would suffer the same fate, while New Zealand got pummelled to death at close range. By the time the Grand Fleet arrives, only Valiant would remain afloat, though badly mauled and would sink not long after the battle. The main engagement would still be a route as the Hochseeflotte withdraws, but not before 2 11 inch hits started a fire and disables the B turret on Colossus, before it would sink under tow post battle. Lastly just for safe measures, a German U-boat that managed to spot Marlborough while she was heading home managed to acquire a firing solution before the screen could catch it, sinking the Iron Duke-class dreadnought.

The end result is a complete destruction of the 2 Battlecruiser squadrons, 5th Battle Squadron and the sinking of Colossus and Marlborough for what is essentially OTL losses for the HSF. The larger impact however, would be a lack of investigation and mitigation into the Royal Navy’s unsafe ammunition storage practice due to a lack of ships surviving battle damage returning to investigate on. This results in the immediate rush to bring the Admirals into service, with all 4 in the class completing by 1919. However, the continued use of dangerous handling practices and with the Admirals not being updated for the lessons of Jutland contributed to a staggering lost at the 2nd Battle of Jutland, as Battlecruiser Squadron was once again caught by the entirety of the HSF, resulting in the loss of Australia, Inflexible, Indomitable, Anson and Rodney, as well as the old dreadnought Monarch.

In the aftermath of the battle, the concept of the battlecruiser being used in the battleline is basically considered to be obsolete, as British battlecruisers met their end at both battles. Advancing technologies allowed navies to pursue 2 different paths drawing from different conclusions based on this fact. The British, both Italian states and the Japanese both went ahead in the pursuit of speed speed and more speed, while also armouring their battlecruisers to a degree that’s even better than Weltkrieg era super dreadnoughts, producing arguably the first Fast Battleships in the Magnificents, Saints, Francesco Caracciolos and Kiis. The Germans also pursued this path through the Scharnhorst-class and the Odin-class Battlecruisers. Meanwhile, a second approach was also considered, which is for slower battleships but with far more firepower and protection. The British Victoria-class and the American South Dakotas are the zenith of this design philosophy. Amongst them are intermediate designs like the German Siegfrieds, which are undoubtedly battleships, but with an intermediate speed (26 knots).

Aircraft’s role in naval warfare has become increasingly relevant. Both the Imperial German Navy Air Service and the Royal Naval Air Service were pioneers of naval aviation durin the war, with the daring Raid on Wilhelmshaven being the culmination of said innovations. Despite this however, The conclusion drawn by the German school is that while air power is necessary, projection of which through aircraft carriers are not at the point where they could be relied upon to strike targets, as demonstrated in the Raid on Wilhelmshaven, even when the ships are in port, it was lucky that even a quarter of the torpedoes struck their targets. Thus, for the Germans aircraft carriers maintain their role as a part of the battleline functioning as scouting units. For the British, aircraft carriers have proven their worth in functioning as a strike asset, and thus for navies with a large gap in battle fleet strength compared to their primary rivals like the Republican Navy or the IJN, aircraft carriers becme a crucial attritional strike force.

The post war period up until 1925 have been an experimental period and one of tremendous build up as the US, Japan, British Empire and German Empire embarked on a second dreadnought race, one in which by 1925 the Americans were winning with ease albeit reluctantly, the British were close behind at a cost, the Germans were struggling to pay for and the Japanese were near bankruptcy in trying to keep up. This environment was not conducive to a peaceful environment, as Thucidydes trap sees the Global power in the British Empire rapidly losing, and by many accounts, have already lost its dominant position attained by its naval supremacy, while an ascendant power Japan hits their peak and begins the slow crescendo back towards the bottom. Most political analysts predicted that a Great War would break out before the end of the decade, before the British Revolution shook the world.

The Revolution threw the balance of power out of the window, in mere months the United States of America has become a global hegemon, despite its people and government never wanting to do so as the ghosts of Woodrow Wilson returns to haunt them. The German Empire acted decisively during this crisis, as Kaiser Wilhelm II in his usual boisterous manner secured the Kaiserreich as the de facto protector of most of the former British colonies, much to the dismay of the most powerful civilians in the Imperial Government. The Japanese Empire was slower to act, and with Germany now essentially forming an impenetrable wall of islands and colonies south of Japan, a threatened Empire was now on a collision course with the ascendant Kaiserreich. The state of affairs was not sustainable, and thus the American Government called a disarmament and peace conference in Washington in order to solidify the global order post Pax Britannica.

Washington Naval Treaty

With the full effects of the Second Dreadnought Race shown in full effect with the deposal of the British Monarchy, the German government in the aftermath finding themselves in a position of great paranoia and with no desire to bolster naval fundings, fearing that the same would happen to them. Much to the same effect, the ever prospering United States sees itself with the world’s greatest navy with the division of the Royal Navy and the completion of the 1916 naval building plan, contrasting heavily with a reluctant and penny pinching Congress as well as an isolationist government. It was natural that these 2 reluctant powers would come together to forge their own future order of the world.

Amongst the various agreements made in Washington on those fateful March/April days of 1926, the only to be properly solidified as a framework of international cooperation was the Five Powers Treaty, better known as the Washington Naval Treaty. Detailing a system for a global balance of naval power and a reduction in naval arms and buildup, the WNT was a hard fought battle the result of which does not do the long and complicated negotiations justice.

The goals of the parties entering the conference was simple. The US seeked to maintain its place as the undisputed naval hegemon without having to pay an additional cent, Germany seek to have a navy that would unquestionably be able to patrol its now vast colonial empire, while the Japanese delegation seek to keep the American fleet within grasp of a Japanese victory in the Pacific, without having to pander to the war hawks at home who are destroying the nation’s economy.

Battleships

When the American proposal to allocate a maximum tonnage of displacement for capital ships in ratios of 5:4.25:3:1.75 was first offered, the German Empire happily supported it. The German naval establishment has long had a friendly relation with the American one stemming from before the Weltkrieg, and now in the situation they found themselves in, and with Tirpitz’s Riskflotte doctrine still very much intact, Germany finds itself content with a battlefleet only 15% smaller than those of the Americans. After all, the British had outnumbered them nearly 2:1, this was a dramatic improvement. The Japanese however, did not agree. Their warplans have calculated that a fleet of 70% the American one would be needed in order to ensure victory against the US, including the fact that they would face the Pacific and Atlantic fleets separately. Regardless the Japanese would also accept, just. The Americans have broken the Japanese diplomatic code, and correspondents being tapped from Tokyo ensured the Americans with the knowledge that the Japanese would be willing to compromise down to 60%. The allocated tonnage would be twice of what the French and Austro Hungarian fleet actually aims for, and so both of them accepts the proposal with no resistance. France especially, as it sees the Washington Naval Conference as a concession of recognition from the rest of the world to the revolution in France.

A capital ship building holiday of 10 years was also easily agreed upon, especially considering the financial state (or in America’s case, the political state) that the signatories were finding themselves in. Limitations of capital ships quality were also made, with all capital ships being limited to 16.5 inch guns (to accommodate for the Germans) and 45,000 tonnes in displacements. Arguments from the German Empire in that as a colonial empire, they require more of the displacement of their ships to be fuel, meaning that the actual warmaking displacement would be inferior to that of the other navies’ battlefleet means that the concept of standard displacement was born, which was to be the displacement with everything a ship would need to sail out to sea and fight, aside from fuel and reserve feed water.

Rebuild of existing capital ships are allowed, however they must fall within their former displacement, with a margin of 3,000 tons being allowed for the addition of anti aircraft and torpedo protection systems.

Aircraft Carriers

As for aircraft carriers, which has been a new frontier for naval combat and extensively researched by the Royal Navy pre revolution, the IJN, the Kaiserliche Marine and even the US Navy with their converted seaplane tenders. For the purpose of the conference, aircraft carriers were defined as vessels designed intended for the usage of aircraft that’s over 10,000 tonnes in standard displacement but below 30,000 tonnes. The limit proposed by the Americans would see the USN getting 82,000 tonnes, just enough for the 2 converted Lexington-class battlecruisers Constitution and United States, which in of themselves are being converted due to Congress disapproval to finishing these ships as capital ships as funding dries up to complete these ships as is. Japan, France and Austria Hungary argues two fold, firstly, that this leaves them with barely enough tonnage allocated for even 1 aircraft carrier according to the definition laid out by the conference. Secondly, that the American’s converted Lexingtons would seemingly make a mockery out of the displacement limit, being estimated to be at around 41,000 tonnes. The compromise given was that America would be given the displacement for both converted Lexingtons and an additional “standard carrier”, which at the time was increasingly being used to refer to a hypothetical 27,000 tonnes purpose built carrier, with everybody else being given the displacement proportional to that based on the capital ships proportion. The solution to solve the issue of overweight Lexingtons was also simple, which is to allow every signatories to convert 2 of their disposing capital ship hulls into aircraft carriers, with a displacement limit of 36,000 tonnes.

Cruisers

Things started to get messy once they make their way down to the screening ships. The US delegation suggested the same tonnage ratios for cruisers, which went under opposition from Germany citing its vast imperial commitments. Everybody else essentially pointed at the German supercruisers and argue that in that case then Germany would not be able to keep them as they outgun (9.4 inch vs 8 inch) and out-displacement (14,000 tons vs 9,000) even the largest of the cruisers anybody else had. The compromise was that while the qualitative limit for cruisers would be set at 12,000 tonnes standard and 8 inch guns and a displacement ratio aggreed upon, the German supercruisers would be allowed to be retained.

Destroyers and Submarines

Due to successful utilization in WWI, practically everybody were opposed to submarine limitations, and with most of the fleet already limited, it was thought in all 5 delegations that destroyers should remain free of qualitative and quantitative modifications.

Disposal

The treaty stipulated that all capital ships bound to be disposed of must be disposed of in a very specific manner. These include sinking and scrapping, though a selected number of ships are allowed to be disarmed through the removal of combat essential elements to serve as training ships. Selling or gifting disposing capital ships is explicitly banned by the Treaty, in order to prevent signatories, especially Germany, from being able to “gift” or “sell” its Reichspakt allies 10 battleships and destroy the balance of power. Thus when Bulgaria approached Germany to purchase 2 of its old Kaiser class dreadnoughts that are being disposed of, all 4 other signatories had to sign off on it as an amendment for the Treaty. This incidentally also made the British Empire remnant centered in Canada tremendous diplomatic weight, being unable to afford a vast majority of ships and being legally allowed to sell them, created a situation of battleship proliferation around the world as ex-Royal Navy battleships make their way on the market for cheap. The fact that these are all mostly outdated however meant that most of the signatories did not care much for this development.

What now?

The Washington Naval Treaty’s building holiday is set to expire in April of 1936. Already rumours are circulating of the German Empire calling for another Naval Conference in order to maintain the current status quo balance of power. If they do, the pressure is on for the global hegemons in order to account for the changing political climate the past decade as induced. The Republican Navy, in 1926 was a mere fledgling force fighting for survival against the Royal Navy, now is the second largest navy in Europe and rapidly growing. Despite this, the Republican Navy’s willingness to voluntarily limit themselves to Treaty limitations qualitatively suggests a pragmatism in being willing to cooperate with the international order. On the other side of the Atlantic, the Royal Navy despite being a small shell of its former selves, is still qualitatively across its fleet one of if not the best naval force, though their inclusion into any international naval system would necessarily preclude the Republican Navy. The British Question is one that will give policy makers in Berlin a headache, with all of its answers seemingly come with excruciating compromises.